Friday, September 1, 2017

Astros August Review

Record: 11-17 (80-53) 11.5 games up
Average: Alex Bregman (.345)
Doubles: Yuli Gurriel (8)
Triples: Alex Bregman (3)
Home Runs: Jose Altuve (6)
Runs Batted In: Alex Bregman (20)
Stolen Bases: Jose Altuve (7)
Walks: Alex Bregman (9)
Strikeouts: Derek Fisher, Jake Marisnick (24)
On Base Percentage: Alex Bregman (.395)
Slugging Percentage: Alexa Bregman (.584)
On Base Plus Slugging: Alex Bregman (.979)

Wins: Dallas Keuchel, Collin McHugh (2)
Losses: Mike Fiers (4)
Earned Run Average: Collin McHugh (2.94)
Saves: Ken Giles (5)
Innings Pitched: Dallas Keuchel (35.2)
Hits: Mike Fiers (36)
Earned Runs: Mike Fiers (27)
Home Runs: Mike Fiers (9)
Walks: Mike Fiers (16)
Strikeouts: Brad Peacock (36)
Walks Plus Hits Per Inning Pitched: Charlie Morton (1.200)

Wow, this was a bad month.  I predicted it would be the worst month of the year (hopefully it will be) but I did not expect this bad.  They started with three losses in a row to the Rays, followed by winning two out of three against the Blue Jays.  Then came the worst stretch of the season, with five losses in a row on the road including a sweep to the terrible White Sox.  It was only slightly better in the second half of the month, only because they didn't have any prolonged losing streaks. 
It's hard to pin it on any one thing.  Certainly injuries played their role, as the Astros are clearly missing Correa in the middle of the order.  In a lot of ways, the second half as been the opposite of the first half.  When they get good pitching, they can't hit.  When they hit, the pitching is terrible.  The bullpen certainly hasn't helped.  Overall, it's been difficult to watch.
The only real bright spot this month was Alex Bregman, who really lifted the rest of the offense.  Even Altuve had a bit of a slide.
Then, of course, there is the human side.  Hurricane Harvey has been a staggeringly horrific disaster.  It is understandable that the players have been effected as well.  It's hard to play a game when you're wondering about your family.
We must continue to pray for those affected by the hurricane.  As much as we can love and enjoy baseball, we can never forget that life goes on in other ways.
The final day of the month brought two surprises, one curious and the other potentially huge.  In the mid-afternoon, the Astros signed Cameron Maybin off waivers from the Angels.  It will be interesting to see where he slots in with the outfield, though rosters expand so that won't be an issue.  I suppose after the months Derek Fisher and Jake Marisnick had, they can use improvement.  He and Altuve are the league leaders in stolen bases, so they will have more speed on the paths.  He already made fans by tweeting "I'm ready to serve you, on & off the field."  Then boom went the dynamite.  Minutes before the end of the waiver trade deadline at minute, the Astros traded three of their top 11 prospects to the Tigers for Justin Verlander.  This trade had been rumored since before the initial trade deadline, but there were a lot of hang ups over prospects and money.  They were able to get it done, and didn't give up the top-top prospects to get him.  Hopefully this will solidify the rotation.  At least he brings postseason experience.
Oh, and Correa is expected to return either Sunday or Monday.  McCullers should be back shortly thereafter.
September outlook:  After a three-game homestand against the Mets, the Astros head out on a potentially killer roadtrip to their friends out West.  In the middle of the month, they return home for the final nine home games of the season against the Mariners, White Sox, and Angels.  The final seven include a three game trip to Arlington and four in Boston to finish it off.  There are a lot of playoff or potential playoff teams on this schedule, adding to the difficulty.  A more-or-less healthy team should be able to manage it ok.  Predicted record: 15-14.

Overall Grade: D






Sunday, August 13, 2017

My Vocation Story, Part 2 (Teaching and Discernment)

Picking up where I left off…
I returned to Auburn and completed my PhD in May 2012.  I was now in my second year of trying to find full time employment, and nothing was happening.  Over three years, I applied to over 200 jobs and got a total of 2 interviews.  That's how bad it is in academy.  So I spent a year teaching part time at various colleges in Alabama and Georgia, including one north of Atlanta, about 2 hours away.  Nothing much else happened, until Christmas 2012.  I visited my parents as usual in Houston.  Then, out of nowhere, after a couple of daily Masses, two separate elderly women asked me if I had thought about being a priest.  When the first one asked, I basically laughed and said, no, not for me.  When the second one asked, I paused for a minute and thought, actually I never have really thought about it.  Thus began what I always call "the voice that wouldn't go away."  Now actually, this wasn't the first time a little old lady had asked me.  I remember one time in Auburn meeting a Daily Mass goer at the grocery store and she asked me then, but again I simply laughed and said no.  I always tell this story in my vocation talks so that people know, sometimes it's good to ask the question, especially if no one else has asked.  (Side note: my mom had been putting it in my ear for a few years.  "You know, if you want a job, there's always one open to you."  "Yeah mom, not for me."  She will tell you, I never listen to her until someone else says the same thing.)
I began to think about it a bit more.  In the spring, I went on a "come and see" excursion to a seminary in Louisiana.  This actually was a step back.  I felt completely out of place, for a couple of reasons.  For one, it seemed like everyone else there knew they were going to be priests.  I had to room with two other guys I didn't know, and the first question they asked me was: which diocese are you applying for?  Um, sorry, I'm just here to check it out.  Second, the guys were just so young.  It was a college seminary, so it was like spending a weekend with my students.  I came back pretty sure I wasn't going to go to the seminary.
But I wasn't completely shut off.  I also attended a "thinking about the priesthood" day at the parish.  It was pretty good, with a handful of priests, seminarians, and the bishop.  The theme was fear.  Everyone has fears about applying to the seminary and being a priest.  Their goal was to talk about those fears and dispel them.  It was actually a good experience.
I talked to a number of priests I knew.  They were encouraging.  In the end, I took the advice of my pastor.  Don't rush into it.  Take a year to do what you want to do (i.e. teach) and pray about it.  Ok, I can do that.  (Another side note: this was all going on during the time of Pope Benedict's resignation and the conclave.  In fact, I was meeting with my pastor when the white smoke appeared.  I remember distinctly before the meeting we talked about the fact that a vote was going on, but that a decision probably wouldn't happen.  HA!  I ended up sticking around the parish watching the TV with a couple of other random people who were around until the announcement of Pope Francis.  It was an interesting experience.)
So I had a plan, but I had no job.  I couldn't not afford to keep doing what I was doing (part-time jobs, even four of them, don't pay much), so I was going to have to move back home and teach part time in Houston.  Of course I could only find one job there, so I was going to have to figure out something else for income.  Here's your typical PhD, working at a book store/fast food restaurant.  Then, a slight miracle happened.  Less than a month before the fall semester was to start, and about two weeks before I was to move, I got a call from a university I didn't even remember applying to.  Grand Valley State University had one last full time position (three year renewable) open.  Was I interested?  Of course!  I quickly hopped on a plane, met with them, found an apartment, and flew back to finish packing.  (This was the great trip where I lost my driver's license at airport security.  Do you know how hard it is to travel without one?  It makes getting a rental car impossible, so I had to bum a ride from the chair of the department to find an apartment.  Luckily I had a picture student ID to get on the plane.)
Thus we transition to my discernment year.  Let me start by saying that I absolutely fell in love with Grand Rapids.  This despite the 114 inches of snow we got that winter, and the two full weeks of below zero temperatures.  It's a very nice city, just the right size, with everything you need.  And it only takes twenty minutes to get anywhere.  By that I mean it literally takes twenty minutes to get somewhere, no matter how far or how close.  It's weird like that.  I also loved the university and the department.  I loved teaching.  I was finally doing exactly what I wanted to do.  I was able to work sparingly on turning my dissertation into a book, getting the publication lined up, while starting on my next research project (I'm keeping that secret, since I'd still kind of like to do it in my massive spare time.)  All things considered, I was extremely happy and had no reason to change, unless I found a tenured position.
I did not forgo my promise to spend the year discerning, however.  After a lengthy search, I finally found a good parish for me (St. John Vianney, of course).  The pastor agreed to be my spiritual director.  He encouraged me to have a weekly Holy Hour at a perpetual adoration chapel on the other side of town (that meant I had to really want to go).  I began to read Thomas Kempis' Imitation of Christ (that's a doozy, every time I picked it up, it was exactly what I needed).  For some reason, even though I loved what I was doing, that voice would not stop.  Sometime shortly after Christmas, I came to the realization, with my spiritual director, that the only way I could know would be to try it.
This was not an easy realization.  The biggest hang up for me was that it had taken three years to find a full time job, doing what I wanted to do at a good school in a nice area.  I had to "break through" the ego and realize that, even if I discerned out, something good would come from my time in the seminary.  (I didn't break my ego that much.  My rationalization was that if I discerned out, the time in the seminary would help me get a job at a Catholic college.  No joke.)
Thus, I began to look into seminary.  The problem was, since I had moved around so much, I did not really feel as though I had a "home diocese."  (For those who are not Catholic, a diocese is essentially a governing district, centered around a city, with a bishop as the head.  Sometimes they are big; the whole state of South Carolina is the Diocese of Charleston; sometimes they are small; the Archdiocese of Washington, D.C. is D.C. and some of the surrounding area.  Archdiocese is simply a "more significant" diocese in the region.)  I had most recently lived the longest in the Diocese of Mobile, but that did not appeal to me.  Since I really liked Grand Rapids, I decided to meet with the vocations director.  He was very nice, certainly willing to talk with me, but he voiced a concern from experience.  He had originally studied for another diocese, before realizing he needed to be closer to home and transferring to Grand Rapids.  He told me I needed to go home, be near family.  If that didn't work out, then he would be willing to talk. 

I took his advice, and contacted the Archdiocese of Galveston-Houston, home for my parents.  Over spring break, I flew home to meet with them.  I began the application process, and had everything in relatively quickly.  I flew home another time for my official interview, and was accepted.  In the fall, I would begin seminary.  I'm kind of rushing through this, but will go into more detail about the application process and some thoughts on discernment the next time.

Tuesday, August 1, 2017

Astros July Review

Record: 15-9 (69-36) 16 games up
Average: Jose Altuve (.485)
Doubles: Alex Bregman (11)
Triples: Jose Altuve (1)
Home Runs: Marwin Gonzalez, Evan Gattis (6)
Runs Batted In: Jose Altuve (21)
Stolen Bases: Jose Altuve (8)
Walks: Alex Bregman (11)
Strikeouts: Marwin Gonzalez (21)
On Base Percentage: Jose Altuve (.523)
Slugging Percentage: Jose Altuve (.727)
On Base Plus Slugging: Jose Altuve (1.251)

Wins: Brad Peacock, Charlie Morton (4)
Losses: Lance McCullers (2)
Earned Run Average: Brad Peacock (2.42)
Saves: Ken Giles (4)
Innings Pitched: Charlie Morton (30.2)
Hits: Lance McCullers (32)
Earned Runs: Lance McCullers (20)
Home Runs: Charlie Morton (4)
Walks: Brad Peacock, Lance McCullers, Charlie Morton (11)
Strikeouts: Charlie Morton (32)
Walks Plus Hits Per Inning Pitched: Charlie Morton (0.946)

July: a month of injuries and Altuve.
Dallas Keuchel, of course, missed all of the month until a (brief) start on the final Friday.  Collin McHugh finally returned and made his first two starts of the year.  Will Harris missed a good chunk of the month.  But now, entering August, the pitching staff is more or less complete.  I had hoped that they would make an upgrade to the bullpen at the trade deadline.  I’m afraid Francisco Liriano won’t be enough, though at least they did not give up much to get him (and by losing Aoki created space for Fisher).  Sure, they've been overtaxed and that can explain some of their struggles, but they also are not quite good enough to go far in the playoffs, I fear.  We will see.
The most significant injury occurred on July 4.  Carlos Correa made an ill-advised slide into home, jamming his thumb on the catcher's leg.  He tried to play through it, including the All-Star Game, and even hit during .320 with three home runs in seven games during that time, but he eventually realized he needed to have it looked at.  Of course, this meant surgery, and perhaps two months out.  Thankfully the Astros are as deep as they have ever been, and some combination of Marwin Gonzalez and others will fill in (Colin Moran looked good in two games before he hurt himself and had to go on the DL).
Then most recently George Springer injured his leg running down a ball in the outfield.  He should only miss the minimum time.  As he said, it's better to miss 6 games now than 6 weeks later.
And through it all, the team has kept on chugging for the most part.  A large part of this is the monster month by Jose Altuve.  He had a month that few people have ever seen.  He has also cemented himself, or at least he should, at the top of the MVP list.
August outlook:  A homestand against the Rays and Blue Jays is followed by an eight game road trip to Chicago (where I will finally see them in person), Texas, and Arizona.  Then Arizona returns the favor with two games in Houston followed by three each against the A's and Nationals.  A quick trip to Anaheim and a three game stand hosting the Rangers finish the month.  Most of these matchups are winnable, though of course the Rays, Diamondbacks, and Nationals are all in playoff contention.  I will hope for a 16-12 month, though this might be the worst of the year.  Oh, and for those keeping score, I nailed last month’s prediction.

Overall Grade: B+




Sunday, July 30, 2017

Ken Caminiti, A Tragic Hero

This weekend, Jeff Bagwell is finally inducted into the Hall of Fame, joining Craig Biggio as the big Killer B’s in the Hall.  I can’t help but think about my favorite Astro (not named Ryan) growing up, their teammate and friend Ken Caminiti.
Bagwell, Biggio, and Caminiti started at roughly the same time for the Astros, and formed the core of a great young team that never quite put it together.  It’s interesting that while Caminiti was perhaps the most heralded coming up, he obviously fell short of the other two in career accomplishments.  His is a tragic story, but it will never take away what he meant to me growing up.
I’m not really sure why I chose him as my favorite.  Caminiti was the best fielding third baseman I have ever seen.  He was not only a slick fielder, but also he had probably the strongest arm at third.  No one has ever made the diving stop into foul territory and cannon arm throw to get the guy at first like him.  It was poetry in motion.  Something that never got old.
He also was a huge guy.  Perhaps that why I was so impressed, because he was so intimidating.  I remember one particular brawl on the field where he flat out body slammed one of the enemy.  I would not have wanted to mess with him.  He was also one of the great bat-breakers in history.  It helps when you have legs the size of tree trunks.
He wasn’t a slouch offensively either, though he pales in comparison to his teammates.  Playing in the Astrodome for the first eight years of his career did not help.  It was always interesting to me that three years in a row, 1991-1993, he couldn’t break 13 home runs.  Finally he hit 18 in the strike-shortened 1994 season.  Of course after that season he was part of the huge trade sending him and Steve Finley among others to San Diego.  I liked him so much that the Padres immediately became my second favorite team.  That was when he finally started to show what he could do.  I would argue that his 1995 season was the most representative of what he could do (33 doubles, 26 home runs, 94 RBIs, .302/.380/.513).  Then in 1996, he exploded with a 40 home run season and a unanimous MVP.  He also led the Padres to the playoffs, and to the World Series in 1998.  He had two more good half seasons in Houston before injuries completely caught up with him and he had to retire in 2001.
Of course there are the unfortunate parts of his life.  He admitted to taking steroids during his MVP season.  He also had a lot of problems with drugs and alcohol.  Biggio and Bagwell, great teammates and friends, continued to try to help him, but the demons got to him.  Unfortunately he died in 2004 due to his drug habit.
But even so, I will never forget the great memories of watching him play.  There’s the famous Montezuma’s Revenge game in Mexico 1996 when he had to be hospitalized in the morning due to sickness, reportedly ate a Snickers bar, went to the ballpark, and hit two home runs.  
There’s the game when he returned to the Astros playing in then Enron Field.  The pitcher was 3-1 on him and I remember saying, “don’t groove a fastball or he’ll crush it.”  Of course, next pitch was a fastball down the heart of the plate and he crushed it down the right field line.  Called it!  (I believe it was April 8, 2000, which by the way was the only game Dwight Gooden ever started for the Astros.)  My brother will also talk about the game in the Astrodome when he came up with a man on third and two outs in a one-run game in the 9th for the Padres, and struck out.  I don’t care to remember that.  (May 23, 1998; the Astros had a two run home run in the bottom of the 8th to take the lead.)

In the end, he was a troubled man, but I’ve only ever heard good things about him from his teammates.  They talk about his huge heart.  They talk about his greatness as a teammate.  They talk about his skill, especially defensively.  And that’s how I remember him.  A great ballplayer who made mistakes, but still brought a lot of happiness to his fans.  He is missed, but his memory lives on as his teammates and good friends are enshrined in Cooperstown.  They may have been better, but for at least one young 10 year old Houstonian, it was all about Cammy, #11.

Saturday, July 29, 2017

My Vocation Story: Part 1 (Early Life-Grad School)

I was asked some time ago, by someone important, to write about something other than baseball and movies.  Someone else had told me, a couple of years ago, that I should write "the inside scoop" on seminary.  Well, I'm not going to go that far, especially since they say there are two things no one should know how they're made: sausages and priests, but I did figure that I could marry those two suggestions.  I figured I'd start what I hope to be a series of blogs about vocations and seminary, in case anyone wants to know more about that.  After all, one of the most frequent questions is: why would someone want to be a priest?
This first post is intended to be a glimpse at my process of getting to the seminary.  Some people may think all priests (or seminarians) have basically the same story.  In fact, as many seminarians and priests as there are, there are that many different stories.  I will say you can mostly group them into three camps: those who knew all their life and entered right out of high school, those who had an idea but still decided to try "real college" before seminary, and then there's the "late vocations," sometimes also called "second vocations."  These are the old, sometimes wise ones.  Sacred Heart Seminary and School of Theology, where I currently take classes in Milwaukee, specializes in these late vocations.
Ostensibly I fall into the third category, though not perfectly.  Despite what those at St. Francis might say, I'm on the lower end of the "late vocations," since most are in their 40s or 50s.  So for that group I'm young, though for many seminarians I'm old.  As usual, I don't fit in.
This is kind of getting besides the point.  How did I get to the seminary?  Why did I go to the seminary?  Good questions.
Let me begin by saying, I never, until very recently, thought about being a priest.  Growing up, I never thought beyond baseball.  I still rarely do.  I think the earliest I ever declare a future job was when I was about 5 years old I told my mom at Daily Mass that I wanted to be a doctor "so I could help people."  I don't know what that was about.  I remember saying it, but I don't remember thinking it.  I certainly moved away from the doctor thing quickly, since the sight, or even thought, of blood and other bodily fluids makes me queasy.  My sister got all of those genes. 
But, there's another detail in there that may be important: Daily Mass.  My mom took me every day until I started school.  So going to Church was normal for me.  It also led to a kind of funny side note, though seminarian me kind of cringes when I tell this story.  I had my first Communion at a very early age.  You see, I grew up in Houston, in the 80s.  They were (very unfortunately) very loose about things back then.  There was no tabernacle in the church (sigh) so after Mass the "extra" consecrated hosts were brought into the sacristy.  Did I mention my mom was a sacristan?  In any case, one day I found myself, hungry, in the sacristy.  I was tall enough to reach the counter, so I'm guessing I was around 5 (there's that age again).  I was hungry, I saw food, so I started eating.  After consuming a couple, my mom walked in, saw what was happening, and quickly made me stop.  The holy side of the story is: I could not wait to receive the Body of Christ.  The unfortunate side of the story is: I was able to do it in the first place.
I digress again.  As I said, I grew up very close to the Church, but in some ways it was so "normal" that I never really thought about it.  I never thought about being a priest, largely because I wanted to be like my dad and have my own family.  So that's how I went through the next twenty years or so: marriage was my only option. 
I eventually realized I would never be a baseball player, and being a manager was a long shot.  I had to think about something else.  I still don't really know how I decided on history, though the best explanation I can give is that I like my AP US History course (which was taught by my baseball coach).  In any case, when it came time to decide on college, I settled on history.  I also thought about theatre, and even auditioned for and received a theatre scholarship to the University of Dallas.  This was THE SCHOOL my mom wanted me to go to.  It's Catholic, and pretty solid at that, and nearly every student spent one semester studying in Rome (I could have met St. JPII).  The history program was pretty good, I had the theatre scholarship, and there was a chance I could walk-on the Division II baseball team.  It seems like the perfect fit!  But yet, on the last day I could choose, I went with Texas A&M.  I don't really have a good reason why, except that at the time I was working at Texas Roadhouse in College Station, with a bunch of Aggies, and I got swept up in the Spirit of Aggieland.  It can do that to you.
I am happy to say that, unlike the majority of "kids these days," I continued to go to Mass every Sunday.  It helped that St. Mary's is a pretty awesome place.  That being said, I do have to admit that many times it was out of obligation, or maybe guilt, more than "want to."  What I'm trying to say is that I was not exactly the best Catholic.  I started dating a girl in Houston, and it got pretty serious.  If you know me well, you know that it was serious enough that we got engaged.  For my 3.5 years at A&M, I essentially went home to Houston every other weekend, so I never really got into the St. Mary's scene.  Shortly before I graduated, we broke up, and I prepared to move on to grad school (and of course it was that easy to move on). 
This meant a move all the way to the University of North Texas in Denton.  During my two years there, I had a bit of a conversion experience.  By that I mean, something happened that made me take my faith more seriously, and Sunday Mass became less an obligation and more something I wanted to do.  During one of the summers, one of my best friends convinced me to go to Aggie Awakening.  So you see, while I was at A&M, I never even bothered to go, that's how out of the scene I was.  In any case, I went with an open mind.  I'm glad I did, because it remains one of the most important weekends of my life.  It was largely a "right place, right time" retreat for me.  I felt much closer to my faith, and realized I had to take it seriously.
I then moved on to Auburn University, and I actually went out of my way to become more involved in Church (difficult for my extreme introversion).  Even though I was already one of the "old ones," I got involved in the vibrant college student group.  (Another side note: by "vibrant" I mean, from a relatively small group, we have at least three religious sisters, one religious brother, and I believe four seminarians/priests from my time there.)  It was a very good group, with some people I wish I had got to know even better.  I also started to attend Daily Mass fairly frequently, eventually became the sacristan for our Thursday evening Mass, and was part of one of the two Sunday night Mass choirs for five years.  Despite all of this, I never once thought about being a priest.  It was still marriage or nothing.  I did, however, start to think about perhaps becoming a permanent deacon one day (the old "best of both worlds" falsity). 
During my time at Auburn, I was blessed with the chance to travel to Europe for my dissertation research.  I was studying the Mission Control Centers of the United States and European space programs, and needed to travel to each of them for research.  Houston was easy, California was a quick flight, and I also drove to D.C. for the National Archives (a great trip in itself).  The European leg consisted of three main stops.  First, I had to go to Paris to visit the European Space Agency Headquarters and archives.  I had never been that interested in going to Paris, except maybe to see Versailles and Normandy.  Instead, I loved my time there, and did not see either of those (meaning I need to return).  Next was the actual control center in Darmstadt, Germany.  It's a small city south of Frankfurt.  It is definitely not a tourist stop.  The final necessary stop was Florence, the home of the official archives for ESA.  I had not thought much about Florence before, except that I knew there was obviously a lot of history there.  If I fell in love with Paris, I don' t know what to say about Florence.  It is by far my favorite city I have ever visited.  The most meaningful stop for me was in the church of Santa Maria Novella, near the train station (and my apartment).  While I was looking around, completely blown away, I decided to sit down for a little while to take it all in.  At that moment, I felt completely at peace, as never before.  At the time, I took it as consolation of my faith, and an increased desire to serve the Church in some way (as a married man).  Looking back, it was probably my first real pull towards the seminary, but again, I did not see it as such at the time.

Oh by the way, while in Florence I met up with a couple of friends, and we took a side trip to Venice (disappointing, the city, not the company).  Also, while planning my trip, I decided: I'm so close to Rome, I can't NOT go there.  So I tacked on a few days at the end to visit Rome.  To be honest, after Florence I was not that impressed with Rome (but not the Vatican, that was amazing, especially the Sistine Chapel-Last Judgment!).  I need to go back to better appreciate it.

Thursday, July 13, 2017

MLB Mid-Season Review

So we are slightly beyond the actual half-season, but we are at the All-Star Break, which is the traditional half-season, of course.  A little look back at what we have seen, what we can expect, and a check up on my predictions.

For the first time since 1969, there are two teams at the break with 60 wins.  The Astros had the best record in baseball for a long time, until the last week or so when the Dodgers got hot and just passed them by a game.  The Astros have the largest lead at 16.5 games (over both the Angels and Rangers), while the Nationals have the largest lead in the National League by 9.5 games.  The other two American League divisions are fairly close (2.5 and 3.5 games).  Meanwhile, the West has three of the four best teams in the National League.

I think we can all agree that the biggest surprise team is…the Brewers!  Who would have guessed they would be leading the Central (even if the division is overall bad) and have 50 wins at the break?  The most disappointing team has to be the World Champion Cubs, who are struggling at two games below .500.  A secondary surprise team would be the Twins, who are only 2.5 games behind the Indians and currently hold one of the Wild Card spots.  Another disappointment?  I would say either the Blue Jays (41-47) or the Tigers (39-48).  Brad Ausmus will be the first manager fired, unfortunately.  One final minor surprise team: the Braves, second in the East but three games below .500.

To mention a few players who are really standing out: of course the talk right now is all about Aaron Judge.  He’s leading baseball in OPS, home runs, and just four behind the leaders in RBI.  He also, of course, stole the show at the Home Run Derby.  As much as I hate to say something good about a Yankee, he has been impressive.  I also have to shout-out to George Springer.  Though he is my favorite player, I would not have predicted he would be second in baseball with 27 home runs.  Then of course there is the “other” Rookie of the Year, Cody Bellinger.  While his batting average may not be great, he has amazingly hit 25 home runs in less than 300 plate appearances.  It will be interesting to see if he can keep up his power numbers.

Now to review my predictions:

AL East: I had the Orioles first, but they’re in fourth in a stack division and can’t make up the ground.  I did, however, have the Red Sox in the Wild Card, and they look good to make the playoffs, probably hanging on to the division.

AL Central:  Flip the Tigers and Twins at second and fourth, and I had this one dead-on.  I did have the Tigers in the Wild Card, and I doubt that’s going to happen.

AL West:  Ding ding with the Astros on top (and my comment on them out-hitting anyone).  The rest of the division is a crapshoot right now, so I’m not worried about it.

NL East:  Oof, I was tired of picking the Nationals (though I did have them in the Wild Card), so I went with the Mets.  They’re terrible. 

NL Central:  Like most people I was high on the Cubs, and had the Brewers in fourth.  I also picked the Cardinals in the Wild Card.  I don’t feel good about that.

NL West:  Not too bad, I correctly picked the Dodgers and Diamondbacks 1-2, but was too high on the Giants, who are in last.  I did not see the Rockies being this good, and still think they will fall off.

Finally, my Astros predictions (so far):
1.      Yes, Gurriel has cemented his place at first.
2.      Yes, Altuve and Correa are both MVP candidates.
3.      Aoki has taken a backseat, mostly because he stinks (and Gattis doesn’t have enough PAs).
4.      Keuchel and McCullers were both fantastic in the first half (hopefully continuing after injuries).  Fiers has stood up when they were gone.  And it’s still expected they will trade for someone before the deadline.

5.      Giles has been much better this year.  I may have undersold Devenski.  The real problem is the bullpen between those two.  I wouldn’t mind another arm to take the place of Gregerson.

Saturday, July 1, 2017

Astros June Review

Record: 16-11 (54-27) 13.5 games up
Average: Josh Reddick (.389)
Doubles: Jose Altuve (10)
Triples: Carlos Correa, Josh Reddick (1)
Home Runs: George Springer (11)
Runs Batted In: George Springer (21)
Stolen Bases: Jose Altuve, Josh Reddick (4)
Walks: Carlos Correa (15)
Strikeouts: Carlos Correa (24)
On Base Percentage: Jose Altuve (.431)
Slugging Percentage: George Springer (.733)
On Base Plus Slugging: George Springer (1.145)

Wins: Mike Fiers, Brad Peacock (3)
Losses: Joe Musgrove (3)
Earned Run Average: Mike Fiers (2.32)
Saves: Ken Giles (4)
Innings Pitched: Mike Fiers (31)
Hits: David Paulino (31)
Earned Runs: David Paulino (19)
Home Runs: David Paulino (7)
Walks: Brad Peacock (17)
Strikeouts: Brad Peacock (35)
Walks Plus Hits Per Inning Pitched: Mike Fiers (0.968)

How convenient (for me) that the last game of June was also game #81, i.e. the half way point.  All we have to do is double everything from the first half and we know exactly what we’re going to get!
June, for the Astros and for me, was an interesting and not always easy month.  Since I was out of the country for nearly the whole month, I haven’t been able to see many of the games, relying on recaps, box scores, highlights, and (too many) injury reports.  In many ways, that has been the story of June: injuries and chances.  At one point, four of the five main starters were on the DL.  Somehow, they have been able to cobble together some decent starts and plenty of offense to more or less keep rolling.  Also, I predicted 17-10, and so was only one game off.
The month started with a continuation of a great stretch.  A three-game sweep in Arlington was part of an eleven game winning streak.  Then came the roughest part of the season so far, as the Astros went 4-8 over a twelve game stretch, most of it at home.
There have been two big stories in June.  First, the resurgence of Mike Fiers.  Of course, I was the loudest voice behind the “get rid of Fiers” club, and they basically had until he was pressed into emergency service on May 30.  All he did after that was one dominant performance after another as he took over the defacto ace role for the ailing rotation.  How is this for turn-around: after giving up 18 home runs in the first two months, he gave up none in five starts in June!  Cheers to him for stepping up.  Brad Peacock also did an admirable job, going 3-1 in five starts with a 3.33 ERA.  The problem is the number of fill-in starters have not been able to pull their weight in innings, which has begun to take its toll on the overtaxed bullpen.  They’re going to need to do something to turn that around as the season moves into the second half.  A playoff team is only as good as its bullpen.
The second story has been the offensive outburst from guys like Springer and Correa.  Springer’s home run numbers in particular have been impressive (he’s on pace for nearly 50 home runs, and already set a franchise record for lead off home runs and became the first player in baseball history with nine lead off home runs before July).  Springer is also on pace to become the second player in baseball history to have 100 runs scored and 100 runs batted in from the leadoff position (the other?  Darin Erstad).  Josh Reddick has also stepped up and cemented himself in the #2 hole with a great month.  While this offense is great, the team will need to become more balanced in the second half of the season if they expect to go far in the playoffs (at this point we should assume they will make it).
May outlook:  Two final games against the difficult Yankees at home before the pre-All Star break road trip East to Atlanta and Toronto.  After the break, they start with winnable series at home against the Twins and Mariners, before another long road trip to Baltimore (tough), Philadelphia (should be a sweep) and Detroit (tough again).  A little optimistic, but I’m hoping for a 15-9 record.

Overall Grade: B+