Astros September Review and Playoff Preview

Record: 21-8 (101-61) 21 games up

Average: Josh Reddick (.391)

Doubles: Marwin Gonzalez (11)

Triples: Cameron Maybin, Josh Reddick (1)

Home Runs: Brian McCann, George Springer (5)

Runs Batted In: Alex Bregman (18)

Stolen Bases: Cameron Maybin (4)

Walks: George Springer (15)

Strikeouts: Carlos Correa (21)

On Base Percentage: Josh Reddick (.459)

Slugging Percentage: Josh Reddick (.594)

On Base Plus Slugging: Josh Reddick (1.053)

Wins: Justin Verlander (5)

Losses: Chris Devenski, Dallas Keuchel (2)

Earned Run Average: Justin Verlander (1.06)

Saves: Ken Giles (7)

Innings Pitched: Justin Verlander (34)

Hits: Dallas Keuchel (27)

Earned Runs: Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers (10)

Home Runs: Dallas Keuchel, Brad Peacock, Justin Verlander (4)

Walks: Dallas Keuchel (12)

Strikeouts: Justin Verlander (43)

Walks Plus Hits Per Inning Pitched: Justin Verlander (0.647)

September was a big change from the low point of August.  The Astros finally got almost completely healthy (the notable exceptions of McCullers and the loss of Marisnick).  Speaking of Marisnick, I'm really bummed about his injury.  He may not have the biggest numbers, though this year was his best, but I love his presence on the team.  It seems like every time he plays he makes a difference.  I think he will be missed in the playoffs, though hopefully he can return if they advance far enough.

The Astros were able to wrap up the division fairly early, and so most of the month was about getting guys right for the playoffs.  Verlander had a heck of a month, almost reminiscent of Randy Johnson in 1998.  Correa was slow to getting back from injury, but really started to heat up towards the end of the month.  Altuve cemented another 200 hit season and another batting title (do people outside Houston recognize that he is the best hitter in the game?  Will he get his much-deserved MVP?).  The final two series saw the offense finally start to click, something that will hopefully carry over into October. 

It was great to officially knock out the Rangers, in commanding style, and to win 3 out of 4 against the Division Series opponent on their home turf.  Of course, records go out the window and anything can happen in the playoffs.  With Verlander, Keuchel, Peacock, and presumably McHugh, I think the rotation will be okay.  I also really like where the offense is right now.  That means the bullpen will be the key to a long playoff run.  If Devo, Harris, Musgrove, Giles, and company can pitch like they did in the first half, I like our chances.

Overall Grade: A-

Playoff Predictions:

AL Wild Card:  Yankees over Twins

NL Wild Card: Diamondbacks over Rockies

AL Division Series:     Indians over Yankees (3 games)

                                    Astros over Red Sox (4 games)

NL Division Series:     Diamondbacks over Dodgers (5 games)

                                    Nationals over Cubs (5 games)

AL Championship Series:       Astros over Indians (7 games)

NL Championship Series:       Nationals over Diamondbacks (5 games)

World Series:              Astros over Nationals (5 games)

MVP:                          Carlos Correa

Award Predictions:

AL MVP:        Jose Altuve

NL MVP:        Paul Goldschmidt

AL Cy Young:            Corey Kluber

NL Cy Young:            Max Scherzer

AL ROY:        Aaron Judge

NL ROY:        Cody Bellinger

Astros August Review

Record: 11-17 (80-53) 11.5 games up

Average: Alex Bregman (.345)

Doubles: Yuli Gurriel (8)

Triples: Alex Bregman (3)

Home Runs: Jose Altuve (6)

Runs Batted In: Alex Bregman (20)

Stolen Bases: Jose Altuve (7)

Walks: Alex Bregman (9)

Strikeouts: Derek Fisher, Jake Marisnick (24)

On Base Percentage: Alex Bregman (.395)

Slugging Percentage: Alexa Bregman (.584)

On Base Plus Slugging: Alex Bregman (.979)

Wins: Dallas Keuchel, Collin McHugh (2)

Losses: Mike Fiers (4)

Earned Run Average: Collin McHugh (2.94)

Saves: Ken Giles (5)

Innings Pitched: Dallas Keuchel (35.2)

Hits: Mike Fiers (36)

Earned Runs: Mike Fiers (27)

Home Runs: Mike Fiers (9)

Walks: Mike Fiers (16)

Strikeouts: Brad Peacock (36)

Walks Plus Hits Per Inning Pitched: Charlie Morton (1.200)

Wow, this was a bad month.  I predicted it would be the worst month of the year (hopefully it will be) but I did not expect this bad.  They started with three losses in a row to the Rays, followed by winning two out of three against the Blue Jays.  Then came the worst stretch of the season, with five losses in a row on the road including a sweep to the terrible White Sox.  It was only slightly better in the second half of the month, only because they didn't have any prolonged losing streaks. 

It's hard to pin it on any one thing.  Certainly injuries played their role, as the Astros are clearly missing Correa in the middle of the order.  In a lot of ways, the second half as been the opposite of the first half.  When they get good pitching, they can't hit.  When they hit, the pitching is terrible.  The bullpen certainly hasn't helped.  Overall, it's been difficult to watch.

The only real bright spot this month was Alex Bregman, who really lifted the rest of the offense.  Even Altuve had a bit of a slide.

Then, of course, there is the human side.  Hurricane Harvey has been a staggeringly horrific disaster.  It is understandable that the players have been effected as well.  It's hard to play a game when you're wondering about your family.

We must continue to pray for those affected by the hurricane.  As much as we can love and enjoy baseball, we can never forget that life goes on in other ways.

The final day of the month brought two surprises, one curious and the other potentially huge.  In the mid-afternoon, the Astros signed Cameron Maybin off waivers from the Angels.  It will be interesting to see where he slots in with the outfield, though rosters expand so that won't be an issue.  I suppose after the months Derek Fisher and Jake Marisnick had, they can use improvement.  He and Altuve are the league leaders in stolen bases, so they will have more speed on the paths.  He already made fans by tweeting "I'm ready to serve you, on & off the field."  Then boom went the dynamite.  Minutes before the end of the waiver trade deadline at minute, the Astros traded three of their top 11 prospects to the Tigers for Justin Verlander.  This trade had been rumored since before the initial trade deadline, but there were a lot of hang ups over prospects and money.  They were able to get it done, and didn't give up the top-top prospects to get him.  Hopefully this will solidify the rotation.  At least he brings postseason experience.

Oh, and Correa is expected to return either Sunday or Monday.  McCullers should be back shortly thereafter.

September outlook:  After a three-game homestand against the Mets, the Astros head out on a potentially killer roadtrip to their friends out West.  In the middle of the month, they return home for the final nine home games of the season against the Mariners, White Sox, and Angels.  The final seven include a three game trip to Arlington and four in Boston to finish it off.  There are a lot of playoff or potential playoff teams on this schedule, adding to the difficulty.  A more-or-less healthy team should be able to manage it ok.  Predicted record: 15-14.

Overall Grade: D

Astros July Review

Record: 15-9 (69-36) 16 games up

Average: Jose Altuve (.485)

Doubles: Alex Bregman (11)

Triples: Jose Altuve (1)

Home Runs: Marwin Gonzalez, Evan Gattis (6)

Runs Batted In: Jose Altuve (21)

Stolen Bases: Jose Altuve (8)

Walks: Alex Bregman (11)

Strikeouts: Marwin Gonzalez (21)

On Base Percentage: Jose Altuve (.523)

Slugging Percentage: Jose Altuve (.727)

On Base Plus Slugging: Jose Altuve (1.251)

Wins: Brad Peacock, Charlie Morton (4)

Losses: Lance McCullers (2)

Earned Run Average: Brad Peacock (2.42)

Saves: Ken Giles (4)

Innings Pitched: Charlie Morton (30.2)

Hits: Lance McCullers (32)

Earned Runs: Lance McCullers (20)

Home Runs: Charlie Morton (4)

Walks: Brad Peacock, Lance McCullers, Charlie Morton (11)

Strikeouts: Charlie Morton (32)

Walks Plus Hits Per Inning Pitched: Charlie Morton (0.946)

July: a month of injuries and Altuve.

Dallas Keuchel, of course, missed all of the month until a (brief) start on the final Friday.  Collin McHugh finally returned and made his first two starts of the year.  Will Harris missed a good chunk of the month.  But now, entering August, the pitching staff is more or less complete.  I had hoped that they would make an upgrade to the bullpen at the trade deadline.  I’m afraid Francisco Liriano won’t be enough, though at least they did not give up much to get him (and by losing Aoki created space for Fisher).  Sure, they've been overtaxed and that can explain some of their struggles, but they also are not quite good enough to go far in the playoffs, I fear.  We will see.

The most significant injury occurred on July 4.  Carlos Correa made an ill-advised slide into home, jamming his thumb on the catcher's leg.  He tried to play through it, including the All-Star Game, and even hit during .320 with three home runs in seven games during that time, but he eventually realized he needed to have it looked at.  Of course, this meant surgery, and perhaps two months out.  Thankfully the Astros are as deep as they have ever been, and some combination of Marwin Gonzalez and others will fill in (Colin Moran looked good in two games before he hurt himself and had to go on the DL).

Then most recently George Springer injured his leg running down a ball in the outfield.  He should only miss the minimum time.  As he said, it's better to miss 6 games now than 6 weeks later.

And through it all, the team has kept on chugging for the most part.  A large part of this is the monster month by Jose Altuve.  He had a month that few people have ever seen.  He has also cemented himself, or at least he should, at the top of the MVP list.

August outlook:  A homestand against the Rays and Blue Jays is followed by an eight game road trip to Chicago (where I will finally see them in person), Texas, and Arizona.  Then Arizona returns the favor with two games in Houston followed by three each against the A's and Nationals.  A quick trip to Anaheim and a three game stand hosting the Rangers finish the month.  Most of these matchups are winnable, though of course the Rays, Diamondbacks, and Nationals are all in playoff contention.  I will hope for a 16-12 month, though this might be the worst of the year.  Oh, and for those keeping score, I nailed last month’s prediction.

Overall Grade: B+

Astros June Review

Record: 16-11 (54-27) 13.5 games up

Average: Josh Reddick (.389)

Doubles: Jose Altuve (10)

Triples: Carlos Correa, Josh Reddick (1)

Home Runs: George Springer (11)

Runs Batted In: George Springer (21)

Stolen Bases: Jose Altuve, Josh Reddick (4)

Walks: Carlos Correa (15)

Strikeouts: Carlos Correa (24)

On Base Percentage: Jose Altuve (.431)

Slugging Percentage: George Springer (.733)

On Base Plus Slugging: George Springer (1.145)

Wins: Mike Fiers, Brad Peacock (3)

Losses: Joe Musgrove (3)

Earned Run Average: Mike Fiers (2.32)

Saves: Ken Giles (4)

Innings Pitched: Mike Fiers (31)

Hits: David Paulino (31)

Earned Runs: David Paulino (19)

Home Runs: David Paulino (7)

Walks: Brad Peacock (17)

Strikeouts: Brad Peacock (35)

Walks Plus Hits Per Inning Pitched: Mike Fiers (0.968)

How convenient (for me) that the last game of June was also game #81, i.e. the half way point.  All we have to do is double everything from the first half and we know exactly what we’re going to get!

June, for the Astros and for me, was an interesting and not always easy month.  Since I was out of the country for nearly the whole month, I haven’t been able to see many of the games, relying on recaps, box scores, highlights, and (too many) injury reports.  In many ways, that has been the story of June: injuries and chances.  At one point, four of the five main starters were on the DL.  Somehow, they have been able to cobble together some decent starts and plenty of offense to more or less keep rolling.  Also, I predicted 17-10, and so was only one game off.

The month started with a continuation of a great stretch.  A three-game sweep in Arlington was part of an eleven game winning streak.  Then came the roughest part of the season so far, as the Astros went 4-8 over a twelve game stretch, most of it at home.

There have been two big stories in June.  First, the resurgence of Mike Fiers.  Of course, I was the loudest voice behind the “get rid of Fiers” club, and they basically had until he was pressed into emergency service on May 30.  All he did after that was one dominant performance after another as he took over the defacto ace role for the ailing rotation.  How is this for turn-around: after giving up 18 home runs in the first two months, he gave up none in five starts in June!  Cheers to him for stepping up.  Brad Peacock also did an admirable job, going 3-1 in five starts with a 3.33 ERA.  The problem is the number of fill-in starters have not been able to pull their weight in innings, which has begun to take its toll on the overtaxed bullpen.  They’re going to need to do something to turn that around as the season moves into the second half.  A playoff team is only as good as its bullpen.

The second story has been the offensive outburst from guys like Springer and Correa.  Springer’s home run numbers in particular have been impressive (he’s on pace for nearly 50 home runs, and already set a franchise record for lead off home runs and became the first player in baseball history with nine lead off home runs before July).  Springer is also on pace to become the second player in baseball history to have 100 runs scored and 100 runs batted in from the leadoff position (the other?  Darin Erstad).  Josh Reddick has also stepped up and cemented himself in the #2 hole with a great month.  While this offense is great, the team will need to become more balanced in the second half of the season if they expect to go far in the playoffs (at this point we should assume they will make it).

May outlook:  Two final games against the difficult Yankees at home before the pre-All Star break road trip East to Atlanta and Toronto.  After the break, they start with winnable series at home against the Twins and Mariners, before another long road trip to Baltimore (tough), Philadelphia (should be a sweep) and Detroit (tough again).  A little optimistic, but I’m hoping for a 15-9 record.

Overall Grade: B+

Astros May Review

Record: 22-7 (38-16) 11 games up

Average: Carlos Correa (.386)

Doubles: Jose Altuve (9)

Triples: Jose Altuve (2)

Home Runs: Carlos Correa and Marwin Gonzalez (7)

Runs Batted In: Carlos Correa (26)

Stolen Bases: Jake Marisnick (5)

Walks: Carlos Correa (14)

Strikeouts: George Springer (29)

On Base Percentage: Marwin Gonzalez (.461)

Slugging Percentage: Marwin Gonzalez (.737)

On Base Plus Slugging: Marwin Gonzalez (1.198)

Wins: Lance McCullers (4)

Losses: Joe Musgrove and Chris Devenski (2)

Earned Run Average: Lance McCullers (0.99)

Saves: Ken Giles (8)

Innings Pitched: Lance McCullers (36.1)

Hits: Mike Fiers (36)

Earned Runs: Mike Fiers (18)

Home Runs: Mike Fiers (10)

Walks: Charlie Morton (15)

Strikeouts: Lance McCullers (37)

Walks Plus Hits Per Inning Pitched: Lance McCullers (0.853)

What a month!  I said I would be happy with 17 wins, and they got 22!  It is even more remarkable when you factor in that three of the seven losses came against the Indians.  They have finished the month on a seven-game winning streak, scoring 40 runs in the three game set in Minnesota (which I would have attended had I not been in Israel).

In some ways, it’s more of the same for the success.  Incredible depth, strong pitching and timely hitting.  Marwin Gonzalez hit four home runs in three games against the Rangers, including a huge grand slam in the bottom of the 8^th while the team was down 3-5.  Alex Bregman finally heated up.  After no home runs in the first month, he hits six in May including three games in a row to end the month.  George Springer went almost a month (4/18-5/14) without a home run, then exploded for four in the last five games.  Meanwhile, Carlos Correa turned in a huge month to greatly improve his year.

On the pitching side, Mike Fiers looked like he was done, and had been sent to the bullpen until Charlie Morton had to unexpectedly go on the DL.  In his “emergency” start, Fiers finally pitched a solid game.  Dallas Keuchel had to miss a start, but continued his dominance, while Lance McCullers has proven to be the next ace.  The bullpen has been mostly shutdown, though Chris Devenski hit a bit of a speed bump, except Luke Gregerson who is easily the worst arm in the pen.

In the end, if the Astros keep this up, 100 wins should be a slam dunk.

June outlook:  A lot of division games in June, including six against the Rangers, seven against the A’s, and three against the Angels and Mariners.  This month could either see the division pull the Astros back down, or they could pull away.  I could see about a 17-10 record.

Overall Grade: A+

Astros April Review

Record: 16-9 (16-9) 3 games up

Average: Yulieski Gurriel (.329)

Doubles: Yulieski Gurriel (6)

Triples: Josh Reddick (1)

Home Runs: George Springer (7)

Runs Batted In: George Springer and Evan Gattis (14)

Stolen Bases: Jose Altuve (7)

Walks: Jose Altuve and Brian McCann (11)

Strikeouts: Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and George Springer (23)

On Base Percentage: Jose Altuve (.402)

Slugging Percentage: Evan Gattis (.518)

On Base Plus Slugging: Evan Gattis (.918)

Wins: Dallas Keuchel (5)

Losses: Charlie Morton and Joe Musgrove (2)

Earned Run Average: Dallas Keuchel (1.21)

Saves: Ken Giles (6)

Innings Pitched: Dallas Keuchel (44.2)

Hits: Charlie Morton and Joe Musgrove (30)

Earned Runs: Joe Musgrove (15)

Home Runs: Mike Fiers (8)

Walks: Dallas Keuchel (11)

Strikeouts: Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers (36)

Walks Plus Hits Per Inning Pitched: Dallas Keuchel (0.81)

The Astros find themselves in first place at the end of April, three games above the Angels.  It's been a month built on depth, something that would not have been said after the first home stand.  Then, it looked like they could only win on pitching and home runs.  Once they went on the road, the rest of the hitting turned around.  In a matter of five days, they came back from two five run deficits, something they had not done in nearly a decade.  They have been equally good at home (8-5) and on the road (7-4).  They've been able to deal with their share of injuries.  First, it was Jake Marisnick, who was hitting better than he ever had.  Then, George Springer and Jose Altuve missed a few games.  All the while, Collin McHugh has not pitched an inning yet, and looks to be a ways away (at least three weeks away from pitching).

The team MVP would have to be Dallas Keuchel, who has been fantastic over six starts with a league-best 5-0 record.  He also has the third best ERA (1.21) and eighth best WHIP (0.81).  Overall, the pitching has been fine, with Will Harris, Chris Devenski, and Brad Peacock pitching especially well out of the bullpen.  As expected, if they are to maintain their winning ways, they will have to upgrade the rotation.  They especially need to replace Mike Fiers, who has been bad over four starts (0-1, 5.12 ERA, 1.603 WHIP, only 19.1 innings).

George Springer carried the team in the first week, jumping out to seven home runs in the first fourteen games.  At the time he started to cool off, Jose Altuve and Yulieski Gurriel started to hit.  They have also had important contributions by Brian McCann, Evan Gattis, and Josh Reddick.

May outlook:  They start with four games against the hated Rangers before a quick trip to Anaheim.  After two games hosting the Braves, they head east for a week to face the Yankees and Marlins.  A lengthy home stand sees the Indians, Tigers, and Orioles come to Houston before they finish the month with a trip to Minnesota.  It's a tricky schedule, with some good teams on the horizon.  I'd be happy with a 17-12 record.

Overall Grade: A-