Houston Astros: World Champs

I should be sleeping right now, but I can't.  The Houston Astros have won the World Series.

Let me say that again, the Houston Astros have won the World Series.

Houston Astros: World Champs.

It's doesn't make any sense.  I have been waiting for this moment for 35 years.  I never thought it would happen, but it was a dream.  Now it's reality, and yet it feels more like a dream.

The Houston Astros won the World Series.

It is hard for me to describe what this means to me.  I have often said, and people usually take this as a joke, that baseball was my first love.  It's not really a joke.  And the Astros have always been my team.  Yes, my brother will point out that for a time I was a Mets fan, for reasons I don't really know (probably because he hated them so much when I was young that I had to like them).  And yes, I was a Red Sox fan, roughly from the time we lived there (mid-90s) until around the time of their second World Series when I realized it wasn't fun anymore.  And yes, I was even a fan for a few years in the 90s of the Padres, solely because of my favorite player Ken Caminiti.  But it's always been the Astros.

I recently had someone at the seminary ask me in complete bewilderment how I could like a sports team so much.  My answer was simple yet complex: passion.  I don't like to say this much, or even admit it, but I am a very passionate person.  I tend to go all in, or all out, on things.  And my first passion? The Astros.

And now they are World Champions.

I keep saying that because at some point it will sink in.  I grew up with the mediocre Astros.  I was not quite old enough in 1986, so for me the Astros were the late-80s, early-90s mix of minor talent and hangers-on.  I grew up with the likes of Billy Hatcher and Kevin Bass and Craig Reynolds and Jim Pankovits.  I also grew up with Nolan Ryan, the only answer for a generation of baseball fans in Texas to the question "who is your favorite player?"  We moved away in the mid-90s, so I missed some of those years, but we came back just in time for the longest stretch of sustained success in team history: the late 90s and early 00s.  But they never could get past those annoying Braves, which explains why I still hate them.  Then, in my first year in grad school, they somehow jumped the hurdle and made the World Series.  Of course, they ran into that mix of losers known as the White Sox and were promptly swept.  My only consolation to this day is that it was the closest World Series sweep in history.  They could have, and should have, won every game.  In some ways that made it worse.

When people talk about how amazing it was the Astros got to this place, they often mention the three years in a row of 100 losses and how that was tough to be a fan then.  Certainly it was, but for me the worst years were the years between the World Series and those 100 loss seasons when the team was directionless.  That's when it was really hard to watch.  Sure, they had my favorite player Lance Berkman.  And Roy Oswalt.  And later Hunter Pence.  But you also had to suffer through all of the over-the-hill veterans who commanded a ton of money and were awful.  Those were the Tadahito Iguchi and Carlos Lee and Carlos Pena years.  At least when they decided to scrap the team and rebuild from the bottom up, there was the feeling that they had a plan.  Still, it was hard to watch a glorified AAA team take the field.  But those years brought us this success.  Without it, there is no Carlos Correa, Lance McCullers, Alex Bregman, etc.  Heck, there's probably no Jose Altuve and certainly no Dallas Keuchel, who were given all the chances in the world to grow, chances they would not have had on contending teams.  (I'm not going to sully this celebration by bringing up a certain first baseman who was also given many opportunities and failed miserably each time.)

2015 was a tease.  They weren't ready to be successfully, but they were.  I can still remember sitting in the stands in my first playoff game, the Astros up late on the Royals, everybody sure that they were going to advance.  I still remember the slow bleed that turned into the most crushing loss I have ever witnessed in person.  It still hurts, though slightly less as I type this.

Last year was a disappointment.  But yet, there was still hope for the future, because we were in good hands.

Everybody knows that, thanks to Sports Illustrated, 2017 was supposed to be the year.  Even still, I tried to temper my expectations.  Even after they got off to the best start in franchise history, even as the offense set records and put up numbers not seen since the Ruth and Gehrig Yankees, I knew that in the playoffs, anything can happen.  Rarely does the best team win, it's usually the hottest.  And plus, as everyone kept reminding us, even with Keuchel and McCullers, the Astros still didn't have that "ace." 

We all know about the hurricane.  We know how the front office gave the city hope with the last second trade for Justin Verlander.  They made the playoffs, but still had a mountain to climb.

The Red Sox series brought hope.  Maybe the bats will show up, unlike the Biggio and Bagwell days.

The Yankees series brought a roller coaster of emotions, and huge questions about their performance on the road.  I cannot tell you how many times I knew they would lose, because that's what this franchise did.  And yet, they hung on.

And what can you say about the World Series?  Epic.  Classic.  Heartburn.  Exhaustion.  Deemed over multiple times.  Huge momentum swings, if that's even a thing.  Records shattered.  Loss of sleep.  Crushing loss.  Immense joy.  Numbness.

The Houston Astros are World Champions.

Thank you Jim Crane for being bold, taking a huge chance, and looking beyond immediate success, something many of us can learn from (I'm looking at you, politicians).

Thank you Jeff Luhnow for having a plan and sticking to it, even when fans and others couldn't see it.

Thank you A.J. Hinch, though I doubted you in the ALCS, you figured it out.

Thank you George Springer for reminding me why you're my favorite.

Thank you Jose Altuve, even if you did turn into Bagwell in the World Series.

Thank you Alex Bregman for having the greatest defensive performance in the World Series since Brooks Robinson.

Thank you Carlos Correa, Yuli Gurriel, Brian McCann, and even you Marwin Gonzalez and Josh Reddick.

Thank you Justin Verlander, Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers, Charlie Morton, Brad Peacock, et al.  Somehow you outdueled that "unhittable" Dodgers staff.  I will even try to thank you, Ken Giles.

This one is for all those guys who never quite put it together.  Cesar Cedeno, Jose Cruz, Alan Ashby, Glenn Davis, Kevin Bass, Mike Scott, J.R. Richard, Larry Dierker, Craig Biggio, Jeff Bagwell, Ken Caminiti, Mike Hampton, Moises Alou, Lance Berkman, Roy Oswalt, Billy Wagner, Wandy Rodriguez, and a host of others.  You all lit the fire and kept it burning.  The young guns finished the job.

I still cannot believe it.

The Houston Astros have won the World Series.

Astros September Review and Playoff Preview

Record: 21-8 (101-61) 21 games up

Average: Josh Reddick (.391)

Doubles: Marwin Gonzalez (11)

Triples: Cameron Maybin, Josh Reddick (1)

Home Runs: Brian McCann, George Springer (5)

Runs Batted In: Alex Bregman (18)

Stolen Bases: Cameron Maybin (4)

Walks: George Springer (15)

Strikeouts: Carlos Correa (21)

On Base Percentage: Josh Reddick (.459)

Slugging Percentage: Josh Reddick (.594)

On Base Plus Slugging: Josh Reddick (1.053)

Wins: Justin Verlander (5)

Losses: Chris Devenski, Dallas Keuchel (2)

Earned Run Average: Justin Verlander (1.06)

Saves: Ken Giles (7)

Innings Pitched: Justin Verlander (34)

Hits: Dallas Keuchel (27)

Earned Runs: Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers (10)

Home Runs: Dallas Keuchel, Brad Peacock, Justin Verlander (4)

Walks: Dallas Keuchel (12)

Strikeouts: Justin Verlander (43)

Walks Plus Hits Per Inning Pitched: Justin Verlander (0.647)

September was a big change from the low point of August.  The Astros finally got almost completely healthy (the notable exceptions of McCullers and the loss of Marisnick).  Speaking of Marisnick, I'm really bummed about his injury.  He may not have the biggest numbers, though this year was his best, but I love his presence on the team.  It seems like every time he plays he makes a difference.  I think he will be missed in the playoffs, though hopefully he can return if they advance far enough.

The Astros were able to wrap up the division fairly early, and so most of the month was about getting guys right for the playoffs.  Verlander had a heck of a month, almost reminiscent of Randy Johnson in 1998.  Correa was slow to getting back from injury, but really started to heat up towards the end of the month.  Altuve cemented another 200 hit season and another batting title (do people outside Houston recognize that he is the best hitter in the game?  Will he get his much-deserved MVP?).  The final two series saw the offense finally start to click, something that will hopefully carry over into October. 

It was great to officially knock out the Rangers, in commanding style, and to win 3 out of 4 against the Division Series opponent on their home turf.  Of course, records go out the window and anything can happen in the playoffs.  With Verlander, Keuchel, Peacock, and presumably McHugh, I think the rotation will be okay.  I also really like where the offense is right now.  That means the bullpen will be the key to a long playoff run.  If Devo, Harris, Musgrove, Giles, and company can pitch like they did in the first half, I like our chances.

Overall Grade: A-

Playoff Predictions:

AL Wild Card:  Yankees over Twins

NL Wild Card: Diamondbacks over Rockies

AL Division Series:     Indians over Yankees (3 games)

                                    Astros over Red Sox (4 games)

NL Division Series:     Diamondbacks over Dodgers (5 games)

                                    Nationals over Cubs (5 games)

AL Championship Series:       Astros over Indians (7 games)

NL Championship Series:       Nationals over Diamondbacks (5 games)

World Series:              Astros over Nationals (5 games)

MVP:                          Carlos Correa

Award Predictions:

AL MVP:        Jose Altuve

NL MVP:        Paul Goldschmidt

AL Cy Young:            Corey Kluber

NL Cy Young:            Max Scherzer

AL ROY:        Aaron Judge

NL ROY:        Cody Bellinger

Astros August Review

Record: 11-17 (80-53) 11.5 games up

Average: Alex Bregman (.345)

Doubles: Yuli Gurriel (8)

Triples: Alex Bregman (3)

Home Runs: Jose Altuve (6)

Runs Batted In: Alex Bregman (20)

Stolen Bases: Jose Altuve (7)

Walks: Alex Bregman (9)

Strikeouts: Derek Fisher, Jake Marisnick (24)

On Base Percentage: Alex Bregman (.395)

Slugging Percentage: Alexa Bregman (.584)

On Base Plus Slugging: Alex Bregman (.979)

Wins: Dallas Keuchel, Collin McHugh (2)

Losses: Mike Fiers (4)

Earned Run Average: Collin McHugh (2.94)

Saves: Ken Giles (5)

Innings Pitched: Dallas Keuchel (35.2)

Hits: Mike Fiers (36)

Earned Runs: Mike Fiers (27)

Home Runs: Mike Fiers (9)

Walks: Mike Fiers (16)

Strikeouts: Brad Peacock (36)

Walks Plus Hits Per Inning Pitched: Charlie Morton (1.200)

Wow, this was a bad month.  I predicted it would be the worst month of the year (hopefully it will be) but I did not expect this bad.  They started with three losses in a row to the Rays, followed by winning two out of three against the Blue Jays.  Then came the worst stretch of the season, with five losses in a row on the road including a sweep to the terrible White Sox.  It was only slightly better in the second half of the month, only because they didn't have any prolonged losing streaks. 

It's hard to pin it on any one thing.  Certainly injuries played their role, as the Astros are clearly missing Correa in the middle of the order.  In a lot of ways, the second half as been the opposite of the first half.  When they get good pitching, they can't hit.  When they hit, the pitching is terrible.  The bullpen certainly hasn't helped.  Overall, it's been difficult to watch.

The only real bright spot this month was Alex Bregman, who really lifted the rest of the offense.  Even Altuve had a bit of a slide.

Then, of course, there is the human side.  Hurricane Harvey has been a staggeringly horrific disaster.  It is understandable that the players have been effected as well.  It's hard to play a game when you're wondering about your family.

We must continue to pray for those affected by the hurricane.  As much as we can love and enjoy baseball, we can never forget that life goes on in other ways.

The final day of the month brought two surprises, one curious and the other potentially huge.  In the mid-afternoon, the Astros signed Cameron Maybin off waivers from the Angels.  It will be interesting to see where he slots in with the outfield, though rosters expand so that won't be an issue.  I suppose after the months Derek Fisher and Jake Marisnick had, they can use improvement.  He and Altuve are the league leaders in stolen bases, so they will have more speed on the paths.  He already made fans by tweeting "I'm ready to serve you, on & off the field."  Then boom went the dynamite.  Minutes before the end of the waiver trade deadline at minute, the Astros traded three of their top 11 prospects to the Tigers for Justin Verlander.  This trade had been rumored since before the initial trade deadline, but there were a lot of hang ups over prospects and money.  They were able to get it done, and didn't give up the top-top prospects to get him.  Hopefully this will solidify the rotation.  At least he brings postseason experience.

Oh, and Correa is expected to return either Sunday or Monday.  McCullers should be back shortly thereafter.

September outlook:  After a three-game homestand against the Mets, the Astros head out on a potentially killer roadtrip to their friends out West.  In the middle of the month, they return home for the final nine home games of the season against the Mariners, White Sox, and Angels.  The final seven include a three game trip to Arlington and four in Boston to finish it off.  There are a lot of playoff or potential playoff teams on this schedule, adding to the difficulty.  A more-or-less healthy team should be able to manage it ok.  Predicted record: 15-14.

Overall Grade: D

Astros July Review

Record: 15-9 (69-36) 16 games up

Average: Jose Altuve (.485)

Doubles: Alex Bregman (11)

Triples: Jose Altuve (1)

Home Runs: Marwin Gonzalez, Evan Gattis (6)

Runs Batted In: Jose Altuve (21)

Stolen Bases: Jose Altuve (8)

Walks: Alex Bregman (11)

Strikeouts: Marwin Gonzalez (21)

On Base Percentage: Jose Altuve (.523)

Slugging Percentage: Jose Altuve (.727)

On Base Plus Slugging: Jose Altuve (1.251)

Wins: Brad Peacock, Charlie Morton (4)

Losses: Lance McCullers (2)

Earned Run Average: Brad Peacock (2.42)

Saves: Ken Giles (4)

Innings Pitched: Charlie Morton (30.2)

Hits: Lance McCullers (32)

Earned Runs: Lance McCullers (20)

Home Runs: Charlie Morton (4)

Walks: Brad Peacock, Lance McCullers, Charlie Morton (11)

Strikeouts: Charlie Morton (32)

Walks Plus Hits Per Inning Pitched: Charlie Morton (0.946)

July: a month of injuries and Altuve.

Dallas Keuchel, of course, missed all of the month until a (brief) start on the final Friday.  Collin McHugh finally returned and made his first two starts of the year.  Will Harris missed a good chunk of the month.  But now, entering August, the pitching staff is more or less complete.  I had hoped that they would make an upgrade to the bullpen at the trade deadline.  I’m afraid Francisco Liriano won’t be enough, though at least they did not give up much to get him (and by losing Aoki created space for Fisher).  Sure, they've been overtaxed and that can explain some of their struggles, but they also are not quite good enough to go far in the playoffs, I fear.  We will see.

The most significant injury occurred on July 4.  Carlos Correa made an ill-advised slide into home, jamming his thumb on the catcher's leg.  He tried to play through it, including the All-Star Game, and even hit during .320 with three home runs in seven games during that time, but he eventually realized he needed to have it looked at.  Of course, this meant surgery, and perhaps two months out.  Thankfully the Astros are as deep as they have ever been, and some combination of Marwin Gonzalez and others will fill in (Colin Moran looked good in two games before he hurt himself and had to go on the DL).

Then most recently George Springer injured his leg running down a ball in the outfield.  He should only miss the minimum time.  As he said, it's better to miss 6 games now than 6 weeks later.

And through it all, the team has kept on chugging for the most part.  A large part of this is the monster month by Jose Altuve.  He had a month that few people have ever seen.  He has also cemented himself, or at least he should, at the top of the MVP list.

August outlook:  A homestand against the Rays and Blue Jays is followed by an eight game road trip to Chicago (where I will finally see them in person), Texas, and Arizona.  Then Arizona returns the favor with two games in Houston followed by three each against the A's and Nationals.  A quick trip to Anaheim and a three game stand hosting the Rangers finish the month.  Most of these matchups are winnable, though of course the Rays, Diamondbacks, and Nationals are all in playoff contention.  I will hope for a 16-12 month, though this might be the worst of the year.  Oh, and for those keeping score, I nailed last month’s prediction.

Overall Grade: B+