MLB Mid-Season Review

So we are slightly beyond the actual half-season, but we are at the All-Star Break, which is the traditional half-season, of course.  A little look back at what we have seen, what we can expect, and a check up on my predictions.

For the first time since 1969, there are two teams at the break with 60 wins.  The Astros had the best record in baseball for a long time, until the last week or so when the Dodgers got hot and just passed them by a game.  The Astros have the largest lead at 16.5 games (over both the Angels and Rangers), while the Nationals have the largest lead in the National League by 9.5 games.  The other two American League divisions are fairly close (2.5 and 3.5 games).  Meanwhile, the West has three of the four best teams in the National League.

I think we can all agree that the biggest surprise team is…the Brewers!  Who would have guessed they would be leading the Central (even if the division is overall bad) and have 50 wins at the break?  The most disappointing team has to be the World Champion Cubs, who are struggling at two games below .500.  A secondary surprise team would be the Twins, who are only 2.5 games behind the Indians and currently hold one of the Wild Card spots.  Another disappointment?  I would say either the Blue Jays (41-47) or the Tigers (39-48).  Brad Ausmus will be the first manager fired, unfortunately.  One final minor surprise team: the Braves, second in the East but three games below .500.

To mention a few players who are really standing out: of course the talk right now is all about Aaron Judge.  He’s leading baseball in OPS, home runs, and just four behind the leaders in RBI.  He also, of course, stole the show at the Home Run Derby.  As much as I hate to say something good about a Yankee, he has been impressive.  I also have to shout-out to George Springer.  Though he is my favorite player, I would not have predicted he would be second in baseball with 27 home runs.  Then of course there is the “other” Rookie of the Year, Cody Bellinger.  While his batting average may not be great, he has amazingly hit 25 home runs in less than 300 plate appearances.  It will be interesting to see if he can keep up his power numbers.

Now to review my predictions:

AL East: I had the Orioles first, but they’re in fourth in a stack division and can’t make up the ground.  I did, however, have the Red Sox in the Wild Card, and they look good to make the playoffs, probably hanging on to the division.

AL Central:  Flip the Tigers and Twins at second and fourth, and I had this one dead-on.  I did have the Tigers in the Wild Card, and I doubt that’s going to happen.

AL West:  Ding ding with the Astros on top (and my comment on them out-hitting anyone).  The rest of the division is a crapshoot right now, so I’m not worried about it.

NL East:  Oof, I was tired of picking the Nationals (though I did have them in the Wild Card), so I went with the Mets.  They’re terrible. 

NL Central:  Like most people I was high on the Cubs, and had the Brewers in fourth.  I also picked the Cardinals in the Wild Card.  I don’t feel good about that.

NL West:  Not too bad, I correctly picked the Dodgers and Diamondbacks 1-2, but was too high on the Giants, who are in last.  I did not see the Rockies being this good, and still think they will fall off.

Finally, my Astros predictions (so far):

1.      Yes, Gurriel has cemented his place at first.

2.      Yes, Altuve and Correa are both MVP candidates.

3.      Aoki has taken a backseat, mostly because he stinks (and Gattis doesn’t have enough PAs).

4.      Keuchel and McCullers were both fantastic in the first half (hopefully continuing after injuries).  Fiers has stood up when they were gone.  And it’s still expected they will trade for someone before the deadline.

5.      Giles has been much better this year.  I may have undersold Devenski.  The real problem is the bullpen between those two.  I wouldn’t mind another arm to take the place of Gregerson.