2022 MLB Predictions

I was debating whether or not I would do this, but someone asked and so I am obliging.  I will be honest, I have not paid as much attention this offseason because I was upset with the lockout and further upset about how the powers that be continue to try and destroy the game.  Suffice it to say, I do not like any of the changes that have been made.  But, it’s still baseball, and so here’s my (largely uneducated) predictions:

 

American League

 

East

 

Toronto Blue Jays

            In my opinion, this is the most exciting team to watch.  They should have made the playoffs last season, and the definitely will this year, especially if they can get a full year from Springer.  Biggio also needs to have a big rebound, but they have probably the best lineup even without him at full speed.

Tampa Bay Rays

            They may not look that great on paper, but this team just finds ways to win and so I can’t pick against them.  It’ll be interesting to see just how good Wander Franco can be.  I was surprised about them trading Meadows, and I wonder how that might effect their offense.

New York Yankees

            They had some really interesting transactions this offseason and it’s really hard to figure how good they will be.  They don’t have a lot of depth, especially in the outfield.

Boston Red Sox

            Lots of question marks with this team is why I have them below the Yankees.  Can they piece together a decent rotation?  Will Trevor Story hit outside Colorado?  Can they win with Jackie Bradley Jr. as a regular? (NO)

Baltimore Orioles

            They have some good pieces, and we should see Adley Rutschman and some of the other prospects get a chance.

 

Central

 

Chicago White Sox

            Though they are the best team in the division on paper by far, they are not a slam dunk to win it.  They have more potential holes than most people will admit, like second base, the outfield, and the rotation.

Minnesota Twins

            I picked them to win last year, and they were easily the most disappointing team.  They were very active in the offseason, adding Gary Sanchez, Gio Urshela, and of course Carlos Correa.  I think Alex Kirilloff is going to have a big season.  Can Byron Buxton stay healthy and live up to his potential as one of the best overall players in the game?  Will they bring in some arms to solidify the bullpen?

Detroit Tigers

            The Tigers were also quite active, adding Javier Baez and Austin Meadows among a few others.  They are perhaps the biggest “if” team in baseball.  Best case, they are good enough to land a Wild Card spot.  Worst case, the rotation falls apart and they end up at the bottom of the division.

Kansas City Royals

            They should have a solid offense but a very questionable pitching staff.  I am very much looking forward to seeing what Bobby Witt Jr. can do.

Cleveland Indians (err, Guardians)

            I’m not picking them last just because of their stupid new name (you want to change from the Indians?  Fine.  Why not pick the Spiders, something with history that all the fans wanted?)  They’re almost the opposite of the Royals.  They should have a solid rotation, but they’ll be hard-pressed to get any offense.  I’m shocked they signed Ramirez to an extension.

 

West

 

Houston Astros

            I very nearly did not pick them to win the division, though most people have them a lock.  Will Verlander bounce back?  Will LMJ ever be healthy for a full season?  The biggest problem is that their weakness is up the middle (catcher, shortstop, centerfield), which you never want to have as a weakness.

Seattle Mariners

            They seem improved and could be an exciting young team, but young teams have a tendency to disappoint, it’s just a matter of how long that will be the case.

Texas Rangers

            Kind of out of nowhere they went all in on two big free agents for the double play partners, Semien and Seager.  There’s no way Semien repeats his massive 2021.  Their pitching is also a massive question mark.  They do look like they’re trying to win, however, which is a sign of hope for the fans.

Los Angeles Angels

            What’s their biggest problem every season?  Starting pitching.  What did they do to fix that?  Bring in Syndergaard who pitching all of two innings last year and none in 2020.  It’s another lost season for Trout, and part of me can’t help but laugh.

Oakland Athletics

            They clearly are not even trying to win this season, and it’ll get even worse once they trade Frankie Montas.  They might struggle to win 50 games, let alone 60.

 

National League

 

East

 

Atlanta Braves

            The defending champions are perhaps better than last year, or at least equal.  Yes, there are still some questions about their pitching.  But they look to have a full year from Ozuna and Rosario, Acuna should return soon, and Riley looks like the real deal.  I also think Freeman for Olson is basically a wash.

New York Mets

            They added Scherzer and Starling Marte, two really good additions.  The biggest question is how long deGrom will miss, like last year.

Philadelphia Phillies

            They added Catellanos and Schwarber, two clear offense-only guys, so their lineup is fairly strong.  They also have two very good starters.  But the rest of the rotation and the bullpen???

Miami Marlins

            They have the makings of a good team, but they’re still probably a year away.  They have the potential of having one of the best rotations in baseball.  If their offense clicks like it could, they will seriously contend for a playoff spot.

Washington Nationals

            Yes, Soto might be the best player in the National League, but if he wins the MVP like some people are predicting that’s crazy.  This team looks really bad.

 

Central

 

Milwaukee Brewers

            For the first time…ever, the strength of this team might be the pitching.  They have one of the best bullpens in baseball, and some solid starters in Woodruff and Burnes.  Yelich has to return to MVP form, and Hiura needs to be the bat that they expect him to be.

            --That’s what I wrote last year, and it still holds.  They are slightly less dependent on Hiura, but they still need Yelich to come back from wherever he’s gone the last couple of years.

St. Louis Cardinals

            As someone else said, if you do nothing in the offseason you’re going backwards.  Signing Pujols was a nice sentimental move, but he’s not going to add much, and their biggest hole is the pitching anyways.

Cincinnati Reds

            The bottom three in this division could be very bad.  The Reds still have some good players, but not a lot.

Chicago Cubs

            Yes, they brought in Seiya Suzuki and Marcus Stroman, but the rest of the roster is nothing to write home about.

Pittsburgh Pirates

            What’s to say?  I hate that they are keeping Oneil Cruz in AAA.  Bryan Reynolds is a star, and I hope that Ke’Bryan Hayes gets most of the year healthy.  That’s about it.

 

West

 

Los Angeles Dodgers

            Overrated?  Absolutely.  Best team in baseball?  No.  I hate that they have Trea Turner.  Here’s hoping Cody Bellinger continues to be terrible.

San Francisco Giants

            Adding Rodon makes up for losing Gausmann.  There’s no way they repeat the number of career years they saw last year.

San Diego Padres

            I want to love this team.  I want them to win the division.  Tatis will miss an unknown number of games.  Until they show that they’re going to live up to expectations, I’m going to temper mine.

Arizona Diamondbacks

            These bottom two teams are basically a toss up and will probably both struggle to win 60 games given their division.  I have Arizona slightly higher because they do have some potentially decent pitching.

Colorado Rockies

            Kris Bryant signing here is one of the biggest head-scratchers since…Mike Hampton signed in Colorado.  They might have some offense, but I don’t trust their pitchers outside Marquez.

 

There’s a dramatic change in the playoffs this year and I 1: don’t like it and 2: don’t completely understand it.  Rather than trying to figure out who’s playing whom, I will just list my playoff teams and my World Series matchup.

 

Playoffs:

 

AL:

            Blue Jays

            White Sox

            Astros

            Rays

            Twins

            Yankees

 

NL:

            Braves

            Brewers

            Dodgers

            Giants

            Padres

            Mets

 

World Series: Blue Jays over Brewers

            Great pitching versus great hitting, this time the hitting wins

 

AL MVP: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

AL Cy Young: Lucas Giolito

AL ROY: Bobby Witt Jr.

 

NL MVP: Matt Olson

NL Cy Young: Corbin Burnes

NL ROY: Oneil Cruz

2021 MLB Predictions

 It’s been (almost exactly) two years, and a lot has happened since then, but I’m going to try to get back into this by starting with my predictions for the 2021 season.  Last year was a bit of a mess, to say the least.  I reluctantly followed the start of the season, unhappy with a lot of the rule changes, then I stopped watching around the time of the Jackie Robinson game when my beloved Astros decided to take political things too far and walk off the field before the game started.  You know none of those teams would have done that if there were paying fans in the stands.  Regardless, I got sucked back in during the playoffs, which ended with disappointment.  Now, I’m ready for a full season with way more question marks than most seasons, for many reasons.  Without further ado (there’s been too much already), here’s my season predictions which are sure to be way off:

 

American League

 

East

 

New York Yankees

            I hate to admit when the Yankees are stacked, but they are.  They made a trade for the only good Pirates pitcher, as well as some other arms, and they didn’t really lose anything.  As usual, the biggest question is how much time Judge and Stanton will miss.  They’re just too strong not to win a good division.

Toronto Blue Jays

            I’m very high on the Blue Jays.  I was even before they signed Springer, but now they have unquestionably the most exciting offense in the game.  They remind me a lot of the 2015 Astros: maybe a season away from everything coming together but they will surprise a lot of people and make the playoffs.  If they get one more solid starter, they can be really competitive.

Tampa Bay Rays

            It’s hard to pick them to finish this low, but I’m concerned that they lost their two top starters.  The franchise is run so well that they will be good, and certainly at least be in the mix for a Wild Card spot.

Boston Red Sox

            They’re in a full rebuild mode, despite still having one of the highest payrolls in the game, and Chris Sale will miss most of the season.  They still have some good pieces, but the pitching alone will have them south of .500.  More than likely J.D. Martinez will be dealt, if someone will eat the remainder of his contract (through 2022).

Baltimore Orioles

            Not the worst team in baseball, and probably not the worst team in the American League anymore, but they’re still a ways away from competing.  This season is mostly about getting some of the young players some experience that will hopefully pay off in a few years.

 

Central

 

Minnesota Twins

            I’ve been high on the Twins for a few years now, and nothing has really changed.  They may be a little light on pitching, but their offense is so good it’s not too big a deal.  Hopefully some day they’ll actually win in the playoffs.

Chicago White Sox

            Most people are picking the White Sox to win, and certainly they have a solid team, but I have a hard time placing all my trust in this team.  At the very least, they’ll be a Wild Card team.

Cleveland Indians

            Their window has shut, and the trade of Lindor was the final blow.  A few years ago they had one of the best rotations in baseball, now all of them are gone and replaced by solid but not great starters.

Kansas City Royals

            It will be interesting if they hang on to Perez, Merrifield, and Mondesi or if they trade them to continue the rebuild.  If so, they might slip to the bottom of the division.

Detroit Tigers

            Continuing their rebuild, but closer to moving up then you might think.  Bringing in A.J. Hinch was a bit of a coup.  Their current starters might not be great, but they have some great arms in the Minors.  They should be towards the top of the division in two or three years.

 

West

 

Houston Astros

            This is easily the worst division in baseball, and it seems like the Astros are the least terrible team here, because they all have holes.  No Verlander is a huge blow, they didn’t get anybody (of substance) to replace Springer, and Framber Valdez may be out for some time.  If they top 90 wins, it’s only because of the division.

Oakland Athletics

            On paper, especially in the pitching department, they don’t look like much outside the corner infielders.  But you can never count them out.

Los Angeles Angels

            Yes, they have Trout and Rendon, but their pitching is terrible.  It’s amazing how they haven’t even tried to build a legitimate contender around Trout.

Seattle Mariners

            Very young, very rebuilding, very far from competitive.  The highlight of their season might be the interview by their now-former president.

Texas Rangers

            This seems like a dumpster fire of a team.  Their best player can mash, but he usually hovers around the Mendoza line.  They traded away their only decent starter.  Are they trying to duplicate what the Astros did about 10 years ago?

 

National League

 

East

 

Atlanta Braves

            Very close to the World Series last year, and I don’t see them regressing at all but only getting better.  Acuna is one of the most exciting players in baseball, and the rest of the team feeds off him.

New York Mets

            They really went after it this offseason, but they also missed on some big free agents.  deGrom is older than you think, and Syndergaard is hurt again, but they have a decently deep pitching staff.

Washington Nationals

            I have to believe that Scherzer will return to norm, and they still have Strasburg and Corbin for a strong top of the rotation.  Soto and Turner are superstars, but there’s a lot of question marks elsewhere.

Philadelphia Phillies

            They brought back Realmuto, they still have Harper, they have a decent starting rotation, and they have hope in Alec Bohm, but this team loves to disappoint.  It’s a loaded division, so I don’t see them moving higher.

Miami Marlins

            The biggest surprise team last year, but there’s no way the play that well for a full season.  They could be good in a few years, but not this year.

 

Central

 

St. Louis Cardinals

            The addition of Arenado has made them the clear favorites in a tight (but not great) division.  If they fail to win the division, it will probably because of the lack of pitching.

Milwaukee Brewers

            For the first time…ever, the strength of this team might be the pitching.  They have one of the best bullpens in baseball, and some solid starters in Woodruff and Burnes.  Yelich has to return to MVP form, and Hiura needs to be the bat that they expect him to be.

Cincinnati Reds

            The sexy pick last year that fell flat.  The offense has to be better than it was last year.  They should fight for a Wild Card spot.

Chicago Cubs

            I’m surprised that a lot of people have them doing okay this year.  Bryant and Baez seem lost.  They’re far from the Champion team of a few years ago.

Pittsburgh Pirates

            The only real bright spot on this team is Hayes.  Not only will they be the worst team in baseball, they might struggle to not set a record for losses.

 

West

 

Los Angeles Dodgers

            They’re such a boring and pretentious team, but they are stacked and I hate it.  They might end up with the best record in baseball, because the bottom three in this division will probably be pretty bad, but they shouldn’t run away with the division.

San Diego Padres

            I would love to pick them to win the division, but I just can’t do it.  With the Blue Jays, they should be the most exciting team to watch.  They could win 100 games, again because the rest of the division is weak.

Arizona Diamondbacks

            One of the most disappointing teams last year, they tried to compete, failed, and gave up.  They shouldn’t be horrible, but no chance to compete in the division.

San Francisco Giants

            They have some decent players, especially the young Yaz, but far from competing.

Colorado Rockies

            How long before they trade Story and completely give up?  100 losses for sure.

 

Playoffs:

 

AL Wild Card: Blue Jays over White Sox

            Springer brings his postseason mojo north of the border

NL Wild Card: Padres over Brewers

            Brewers have an early out again, just don’t have enough to match up

 

ALDS: Yankees over Blue Jays – not what I want but probably reality unless Blue Jays pick up an ace mid-season

            Astros over Twins – Twins bad luck in postseason continues

NLDS: Padres over Dodgers – it’s time for the young guns to step up

            Braves over Cardinals – Braves advance to NLCS second year in a row

 

ALCS: Astros over Yankees – let’s do it again

NLCS: Braves over Padres – two of the most exciting teams battling it out, Braves just have enough to come out on top

 

World Series: Braves over Astros – Astros run out of steam

 

AL MVP: George Springer

AL Cy Young: Lucas Giolito

AL ROY: Randy Arozarena

 

NL MVP: Fernando Tatis Jr.

NL Cy Young: Blake Snell

NL ROY: Ke’Bryan Hayes