Epitaph to a Surprise Team, or Why do the Astros have to turn into the Cubs?

I know that for a lot of reasons, I should just be happy that the Astros are still in the playoff hunt.  They are coming off four consecutive years with at least 90 losses.  Last year they won 70, which was a 19 game improvement over 2013, the worst season in franchise history.  They haven't had a winning season since 2008. 

At the beginning of the year, I had predicted they would win 85.  Most people thought I was crazy, since that would be a 15 game improvement.  But watching them every day last year, I saw a team with excellent starting pitching and some good young bats with Jose Altuve and George Springer.  Their biggest hole last year was the bullpen, perhaps the worst in baseball, and they addressed that need with Luke Gregerson and Pat Neshek. 

They had also added Jed Lowrie and Evan Gattis.

  Even with a return to form from Chris Carter (i.e. middling power and tons of strikeouts), I still figured they had a good enough offense to compliment a great pitching staff for a winning record.

Then, they started winning.  They went 15-7 in April.  From April 24 to May 3 they won 10 in a row to jump out to a 7 game lead.  All of a sudden, I started getting my hopes up.  Even after a 7 games losing streak in June, they still held on to the division lead, and followed it up shortly with a 5 game winning streak (during which they only increased their lead 1.5 games).  The Angels looked vulnerable, and the Rangers had no pitching and tons of injuries.  I started to believe they had the division in the bag.

Then, going into the All Star Break they lost six in a row and 8 out of 9.  They lost the division lead for the first time since April 19.  They ended up going only 12-12 in July.  The pitching was holding on, but the bats went cold even with the addition of (Rookie of the Year) Carlos Correa. 

They needed to do something at the trade deadline.

I liked the Scott Kazmir trade.

  He's a veteran from the Houston area, and they really did not trade much for him (I hope that statement is still correct in 10 years).  I figured all they need was a first baseman, since Carter is terrible, Jon Singleton cannot hit above AAA, and Luis Valbuena is not a long term answer.  I wanted Joey Votto.  Badly.  Instead, they got Carlos Gomez, another centerfielder who wasn't hitting, and Mike Fiers, a capable veteran for the rotation.  They gave up a lot for them.  I was not happy.

Since the trade deadline, the Astros are 18-20 (and about to lose again).  I said at the beginning of September, get ready for a September swoon.  Unfortunately, I think I am right.  Their lead, after today, will be down to a half game.  The pitching is still good, but the bats are dead.  Votto, to make matters worse, is hitting .385/.566/.692 with 12 home runs in the second half of the season. 

They are coming up on a 4-game set in Texas.  I am fully prepared for the Astros to be down 3.5 after that series.  I am beginning to prepare myself for the Astros to miss the postseason.

Before the season, I would have been thrilled for the Astros to be in the playoff hunt.  After leading the division for the majority of the season, my heart is starting to break.  You get your hopes up, and they turn into the Cubs. 

At least the team is young, and should be fighting for the playoffs for years to come.  As they say: there's always next year.

Of course, as I was writing this the Astros come back for 5 runs with two outs in the 9th.  Hopefully they will hold on to this lead.