2017 MLB Preview

Thankfully, we are nearly at Opening Day for the 2017 season, the greatest day of the year.  This should be a very good season with plenty of storylines to follow.  Can the Cubs repeat?  Can the Astros live up to the Sports Illustrated prediction from a few years ago?  Speaking of, who the heck will win the AL West?  Can the Nationals ever be successful in the playoffs?  When will Albert Pujols hit #600 (he’s sitting on 593)?  Since I can barely hold in my excitement about this year, I wanted to give a breakdown of the teams and my predictions, plus a little more on my Astros.

AL EAST

1: Baltimore Orioles (last: 89-73, 4 GB)

            This team looks stacked, especially with the infield.  The major questions come with the back-end of the rotation and left field.

2: Boston Red Sox (last: 93-69, 1^st)

            Wild Card

            They made one of the biggest splashes in the offseason by getting Chris Sale, and certainly their rotation looks to be one of the best in the Majors.  I think they have too many questions in the field, including first base, third base, and catcher.  And, of course, who will replace David Ortiz?

3: Toronto Blue Jays (last: 89-73, 4 GB)

            They lost Edwin Encarnacion and gained Kendry Morales.  Can he fill that role?  And what about that rotation?  I think they are just a bit short of the top two.

4: New York Yankees (last: 84-78, 9 GB)

            Their bullpen looks extremely good, just like last year.  Like last year, it will probably be a place to trade for talent.  Way too many questions to be a contender.

5: Tampa Bay Rays (last: 68-94, 25 GB)

            The biggest questions for this team are where will Chris Archer, Evan Longoria, and Alex Cobb be playing by the end of the season.

AL CENTRAL

1: Cleveland Indians (last: 94-67, 1^st)

            It’s hard to look past this team, though it should be noted a number of key players will be missing part of the beginning of the season.  Even with them missing, unless a number of guys take steps back, they will be a machine.

2: Detroit Tigers (last: 86-75, 8 GB)

            Wild Card

            The outfield is in shambles, but the pitching looks great.  Probably no manager has more pressure this season than Brad Ausmus, who is expected to win big.

3: Kansas City Royals (last: 81-81 13.5 GB)

            A few too many questions in a tough division, they still will be fun to watch.

4: Minnesota Twins (last: 59-103, 35.5 GB)

            A surprisingly good 2015 was followed by a terrific 2016.  This young team should bounce back, though they are still missing the pitching needed to contend.  That said, Jason Castro was a smart pickup to help the development of the young pitchers.

5: Chicago White Sox (last: 78-84 16.5 GB)

            A team desperately trying to blow up and rebuild as the Astros did, the big question will be who they can get for Jose Quintana (right now they want too much, in my opinion, which is why I’m glad the Astros are holding out).

AL WEST

1: Houston Astros (last: 84-78, 11 GB)

            Ok, yes, the rotation is a huge question mark.  Regardless, they have the deepest bullpen and the deepest lineup I have yet seen in Houston.  They can outhit anybody.

2: Texas Rangers (last: 95-67, 1^st)

            A solid offense and a great top-2 starters will be taken down by the lack of pitching depth.  That and there is no way they will continue to be the luckiest team, by far, in baseball (their Pythagorean W-L last year was 82-80, so they were an incredible 13 games lucky!).  The West, while the best division, will miss out on the Wild Card because they will beat each other up so much.

3: Seattle Mariners (last: 86-77, 9 GB)

            I don’t love their outfield, but the rest of the team looks good.  The bullpen also has a bit of a question mark about it.  I nearly had them second.

4: Oakland Athletics (last: 69-93, 26 GB)

            Even though Sonny Gray will start the season on the DL, I still like a number of their pieces.  They won’t contend, but they will be close to .500.

5: Los Angeles Angels (last: 74-88, 21 GB)

            Some people have them winning the division, I have them last.  That’s how up in the air this division is.  I don’t see how they have the pitching, or really the offense, to keep up with the others.  I actually wouldn’t be surprised if they trade Mike Trout, though it would take a lot to get him.

NL EAST

1: New York Mets (last: 87-75, 8 GB)

            They look good enough to really make an impact, unless age catches up to them (Wright, Reyes, Granderson, Bruce, etc.).

2: Washington Nationals (last: 95-67, 1^st)

            Wild Card

            I love this team, but I have been bitten too many times.  They also have one of the biggest questions of the season: who will close?  This is probably their last chance as they are currently assembled.

3: Atlanta Braves (last: 68-93, 26.5 GB)

            This may seem bold, but I like what the Braves have done rebuilding.  Pitching is still a question, but their offense should be fine.

4: Miami Marlins (last: 79-82, 15.5 GB)

            I would love to see Giancarlo Stanton on a contender.  He is one of the few guys who has so much power it doesn’t matter how terrible the stadium is.

5: Philadelphia Phillies (last: 71-91, 24 GB)

            Similar to the Astros from a few years ago.  They have some great pieces (Franco, Herrera) but still a few years from real contention.

NL CENTRAL

1: Chicago Cubs (last: 103-58, 1^st)

            Doubtful they will win 100 again, merely because the division should be better and they have a giant target on their backs.  It is also almost impossible for their pitching to be as good as last year.  Regardless, they should win the division again.

2: St. Louis Cardinals (last: 86-76, 17.5 GB)

            Wild Card

            The most annoyingly consistent franchise will be right there again because they have to be.  I do hope that Wacha can return to form.

3: Pittsburgh Pirates (last: 78-83, 25 GB)

            What should be the best outfield in baseball will have to pick up an average team around the rest of the diamond.  There is also the big question mark about whether or not Kang will be allowed to return.  Jameson Taillon is the guy to watch.

4: Milwaukee Brewers (last: 73-89, 30.5 GB)

            Can the Brewers finally get something for Ryan Braun?  Will Orlando Arcia be the next big thing?  Will their rebuilding attempt succeed?

5: Cincinnati Reds (last: 68-94, 35.5 GB)

            What is this team doing?  Do they even know?  When will Votto get the chance to win?

NL WEST

1: Los Angeles Dodgers (last: 91-71, 1^st)

            I really did not want to pick them, but I could not see anyone else that could be better.  They have a significant number of injuries already, but they are also pretty deep.

2: Arizona Diamondbacks (last: 69-93, 22 GB)

            There is too much talent on this team to be that bad again.  They should challenge for at least a Wild Card spot.

3: San Francisco Giants (last: 87-75, 4 GB)

            I’m just glad they finally broke their lucky even year streak.  So many guys on this team are above average, but outside of Buster Posey I can’t say any are great.

4: Colorado Rockies (last: 75-87, 16 GB)

            Is Jon Gray as good as they say?  Can Trevor Story repeat?  Will Carlos Gonzalez or Nolan Arenado be traded to contenders?

5: San Diego Padres (last: 68-94, 23 GB)

            What a mess of a franchise.  They went all in a few offseasons ago, completely whiffed, and have not been able to recover.

AL Championship Series: Astros over Indians

            A battle of bullpens sees the Astros squeak by in an epic 7 game series

NL Championship Series: Mets over Nationals

            NL East showdown sees the Nationals once again fall short in the playoffs

World Series:  Astros over Mets

            Part of me wanted to pick someone else just so I don’t jinx them again, but I cannot hide how much I love this team.  Again, the bullpen is key but the offense explodes on the Mets staff.

Now that the jinx is in, a few notes on the Astros this season.

1.      The Astros finally have a first baseman!  And it’s not A.J. Reed or Tyler White or Jon Singleton!  Gurriel will battle with Bregman for Rookie of the Year in the AL.

2.      Without a doubt, the Astros have the best (young) infield in the Majors.  Altuve and Correa are both MVP candidates.

3.      How will they juggle left field/DH?  Beltran and Gattis will need their ABs, which means Aoki will have to take a backseat.  This is a good problem to have.

4.      Everybody keeps talking about the rotation.  Can Keuchel bounce back?  Can McCullers stay healthy?  Who fills in the rotation after them?  I think there is little doubt they will use some of their vast minors depth to acquire an ace before the deadline.  It might even be worth it to pay too much to win it all.

5.      And what about the closer?  There is no way Giles is as bad as he was last year.  When he locks down the closer role, the rest of the ‘pen settles in and proves to be the best in the Majors.  Sure, Devenski will not be as dominant, but he will be that key piece that makes it all work.