RIP Astros 2016

The Astros are 75-70.  They are 4.5 games back in the Wild Card with 17 games left to go.  There are five teams ahead of them.  The West is much worse (11.5 games back).  It is time to put the final nail in the coffin.  It's time to pack it up and start thinking about next year.  2016 is done.

But let's be honest, it was done way back in April.  The dug themselves a huge hole starting 7-17.  Yes, they had a great June, going 18-8.  Everything was clicking.  The problem is, May, July, and August were all about .500 months.  September they are 4-8 so far.  It's hard to make the playoffs with one terrible month, one great month, and three mediocre months, especially in the tough AL.  It's darn near impossible to do well going 3-15 against a division opponent.  Speaking of that division opponent, the Astros just happen to be going up against one of the luckiest teams in baseball history (it's been documented elsewhere).  They are 33-10 in one run games, despite the worst bullpen in the American League.  They are 12 games over their pythagorean W-L record.  Don't give me the "they've overcome so many injuries," most of those injuries helped them (i.e. Prince Fielder).

Enough about the team that makes my blood boil.  What happened with the Astros?

Inconsistency is a big problem.  At the beginning of the season, the pitching was holding the team together.  Now that the offense is straightened out (June was the one month they were more or less together), the pitching has taken a huge dive.  Doug Fister went from a 3.55 ERA and 1.241 WHIP to 5.20 ERA and 1.609 WHIP.  Collin McHugh from 3.76/1.352 to 6.04/1.645.  Mike Fiers from 4.35/1.355 to 5.09/1.440.  Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers improved in the second half, but for Keuchel it for both it was hard to get worse and both have been injured.

  All that being said, the pitching staff totals are still Top 5 in the league.  So what else?

Nobody has stepped up to be that ace closer.  This is where I have to disagree with the Sabrmetric idea of "anyone can close."  Luke Gregerson has good overall numbers, but he is 14/19 in save opportunities.  Ken Giles, again good overall numbers, 10/14 in save opportunities.  Will Harris, gangbusters and deserved All Star as a setup man, 12/15.  The Astros are at 68% save percentage, just below league average but bottom 5.  18 blown saves ties them for third worst.  To show how it's closers only while the rest of the bullpen has been good if not great: they are second in the league with holds (89).

Oh yeah, and then there was the complete lack of anything at the trade deadline.  We need a bat in the outfield?  We need a closer?  Something?  Let's stand pat and just get rid of a couple of unnecessary arms (Feldman and Fields).  Meanwhile, let's watch our biggest rival fill our two biggest holes with a steal of a trade with the Brewers to get one of the best hitting catchers in the game and a closer.  Great job there.  Really proved to the fans and the team that we're in it to win it.  Though, maybe it was for the best given the trade history of our current front office (do I need to start the litany again of the Giles, Fowler, Gomez, etc. trades?)

I've ignored the offense to this point because, in general, they've greatly improved in the second half (though, unfortunately, Jose Altuve has been on a dreadful cold spell the last few weeks).  Much of this is because of fresh faces finally making a difference (remember my complaint about the young hitters in the first half?).  Alex Bregman, who I was ready to hang after a 1-22 start, has steadily improved and now looks like a solid 3B.

  Yuli Gurriel has been hitting since he was called up and finally added some power.

  Probably the best thing that happened was the two big minuses: Carlos Gomez off the team and a couple of lengthy injuries to Colby "Most Streaky Hitter Ever" Rasmus.  Oh yes, and again Evan Gattis hits like crazy when he catches.

So, some bright spots.  What to do?  Here are three keys for the off season:

1. Get a legitimate closer.  I would love to see them bring Mark Melancon back to Houston.  Of course Aroldis Chapman would be good on the field, but I don't love his price tag nor his off field problems.  Kenley Jansen would be another good free agent option.

2. Cut the deadweight.  I would have a hard time resigning any of the team's free agents.  Colby Rasmus has to go.  Luis Valbuena is definitely not needed.  We can find a replacement for Jason Castro (Gattis is not a full time answer.  Wilson Ramos, maybe?).  Doug Fister is the only one I would think about resigning, but only if cheap.

3.  Find an actual first baseman.  What is supposed to be the premier offensive position is one of the worst on the team, with .234/.300/.393 splits and only 18 home runs.  The OPS+ is a dreadful 87, 13% worse than league average.  That cannot happen on a team that wants to make the playoffs.  Heck, even Chris Carter was better than that last year (let's not talk about his 34 HR season this year).  Marwin Gonzalez cannot be the everyday guy.  Tyler White and A.J. Reed for whatever reason can't do it, at least not yet.  The best option might be having Gurriel go full bore this off season to play over there.  If they don't get a 1B replacement, they will need to get an outfield bat.

Right now, here's what I would like to see going into next season:

C: FA?/Gattis/Stassi

1B: Gurriel

2B: Altuve

3B: Bregman

SS: Correa

LF: FA/Teoscar Hernandez/Tucker

CF: FA/Marisnick

RF: Springer

DH: Gattis

Rotation: Keuchel, McHugh, McCullers, Feliz, Musgrove (Fister)

Closer: Melancon

Bullpen: Gregerson, Giles, Harris, Sipp, Devenski

There's always next year...