Astros First Half Review

Boy, what a first half this has been for the Astros (yes, I know it's more than half the season).  At the end of April, they looked like the most disappointing Astros team I can remember.  Heading into the All Star Break, they are still 6.5 games behind in the West (thanks to a Rangers team playing way over their heads) but only 2 games back in the Wild Card race.  So what happened?

The Astros won opening day.  They only won six more games in April.  Here's their month-by-month records:

April 7-17 (.292)

May 17-12 (.586)

June 18-8 (.692)

July 5-4 (.556)

It's pretty easy to see they've improved remarkably over the last couple of months.  Most people will point to one difference: George Springer was moved to the leadoff spot.  The Astros were 17-28 on May 22.  Springer hit leadoff on May 24, and since then they are 30-13.  Case closed!  It's not that simple.  While undoubtedly that has made a huge difference, Springer has been a different player since then, for instance, there have been other factors.

First was the shakeup in the bullpen.  Luke Gregerson struggled frequently as the closer.  Ken Giles gave up a home run nearly every time he was brought in.  Will Harris was unhittable.  Finally seeing the light, Harris closed for the first time on June 5.  With a simple shakeup of the bullpen, the pitching got a lot better.

The starters also have been much better.  Dallas Keuchel still isn't great, but he has been better in June and July.  Doug Fister started 1-3, he has been 7-3 in the last three months with sub-3.00 ERAs in May and June.  Colin McHugh had a 6.65 ERA and 1.892 WHIP in April, he is down to 4.50 and 1.461.  Mike Fiers has a mid-3.00 ERA since June.  Lance McCullers finally joined the rotation.

I can't not mention the contributions of the young pitchers.  Chris Devenski was the most reliable (non-Will Harris) pitcher on the staff for most of the first half.  He pitched so well in relief he was given four starts, which weren't bad but he got no run support to help.  Then there's Michael Feliz.  April 6, he gave up six runs in 4.1 innings.  He was sent down (Devenski came up).  Feliz came back and on April 26 gave up three earned runs in one inning.  Since then, he has given up ten runs in 34.2 innings.  He's been a completely different, great pitcher. 

Unfortunately, the rookie hitters have not panned out.  Any of them.  That's been the most disappointing part, even as they've turned the season around.  Yes, Tyler White crushed the ball the first week of the season, but he turned ice cold, his OPS dropped to a horrific .682, and he's been down on the farm since June 13.  Preston Tucker was worse and didn't make it past mid-May.  Colin Moran got a brief look, but went 2-19 and was sent back down.  Tony Kemp stayed around longer, and looked better, but has been demoted.  Then we finally got to see A.J. Reed on June 25.  I picked him up in fantasy baseball.  He's the can't-miss first baseman of the future.  He's 5-35 with a couple of home runs, 16 Ks, and a .558 OPS. 

Really, nearly all the hitters outside Jose Altuve are disappointing.  Yes, Springer has been much better since hitting leadoff and has 19 home runs.  Luis Valbuena has had a couple of big hits recently and, after another slow start, has 12 home runs and a .838 OPS.  Carlos Correa, while not bad, has not been as good as we hoped.  Colby Rasmus was the other guy who started hot, but has been ice cold since the end of April.  Carlos Gomez...the less said the better.

Oh, I suppose I have to mention Evan Gattis, who was terrible in April but has at least brought more power since his jaunt down to AA to get some experience behind the plate.  For awhile, he was hitting home runs every time he caught.

Then there's Marwin Gonzalez, this generation's Jose Vizcaino.  He's not going to put up huge numbers, but he is going to step in wherever needed and play well.  That essential utility stopgap guy any winner needs.

A brief look at my preseason predictions:

AL East is fairly close.  Not sweating it, especially how the Blue Jays are playing better.

AL Central is right on-if I moved KC down to 4th.  I did have the Indians in the Wild Card, though.

AL West is swapped at the top, and I should have known better than to trust in the Angels.

NL East = perfect!

NL Central = perfect!

NL West is similar to AL West.

Overall, not bad.  I would be 6 of 6 for playoff predictions in the NL and 4 of 6 in the AL.

And my Astros notes:

White and Reed have disappointed.  Neither has secured anything.  Strike one.

Nothing has really been done to the outfield, outside of Tucker going back to AAA and Gattis being the backup catcher.  No trades in sight.  Foul ball strike two.

McCullers is not quite an ace, but very good.  Keuchel has not been solid.  Fiers and Fister are holding down #4 and #5.  Feldman is still the long man.  Ball one.

Giles good?  No.  Not as dominant as last year?  Clearly.  Best bullpen outside KC?  Not yet.  Foul ball.

Wins total is still to be seen, but 95 will be difficult.  Correa will not win MVP, unless he blows up in the second half.  White may not sniff the Majors again the season, so not even close to ROY.  Strike three.

So, what to expect?  The Astros are trending up, and will continue to climb.  The team we're saying now is more accurate for the talent on the team than the first month and a half.  They should at least make the Wild Card, if not overtake the extremely lucky and less talented Rangers.  Keep the faith.