Thursday, March 31, 2016

Astros Retrospective: 2010s

Astros By Decade
2010-2015

Brick Red Uniforms (2010-2012)

Retro Blue and Orange Uniforms (2013-Present)

It is quite easy, and sad, to say that the first half of the decade has been the worst in Astros' history.  The Tim Purpura/Ed Wade days saw the franchise go from two decades of more or less success to a roster full of aging former stars, bloated contracts, and no farm system.  When Jim Crane purchased the team in 2011 and brought in Jeff Luhnow as general manager from the Cardinals, he started an unprecedented stripping down and building back from the ground up.  Whether or not the fans liked it, they knew it would take a few years of terrible baseball, and a healthy dose of advanced metrics, to right the ship.  So far, it seems to be working.

The Astros made some big steps in 2014, finishing 21 games better than the previous year and above in-state rivals the Rangers (something I predicted at the beginning of the year).  Perhaps more importantly, some of the young talent started to show obvious potential.  George Springer made his debut in April and finished the year with 20 home runs and a solid .804 OPS.  Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh both posted sub-3 ERAs.  Most importantly, Jose Altuve led the league with a .341 batting average and broke the franchise record with 225 hits, graduating from that tiny guy in 2011 with the joke "how manyAltuves...?" to a legitimate star.

Then, of course, last year they made the next big step.  Finishing another 16 games better with 86 wins (prior to the year I had predicted 85) and winning the Wild Card playoff game before losing a tightly contested ALDS to the eventual World Series winning Royals.  Again, the young guns stepped up as the added future ace Lance McCullers,  Preston Tucker, Rookie of the Year and "the next Alex Rodriguez" Carlos Correa, and Keuchel dominated for the Cy Young Award.  The future looks very bright as more prospects look to make the team in the next couple of years, and the stars are locked up for the foreseeable future.

Record:  394-578, .405

Best Year:  2015 (86-76, 2nd of 5, Wild Card winner, reached ALDS)

Worst Year:  2013, (51-111, 5th of 5)

Team of the Decade:

C:  Jason Castro (2010, 2012-2015)  One of the most constant faces for the decade, it has been fascinating to see him change from a good bat with a decent glove to a great glove with a decent bat.
1B:  Brett Wallace (2010-2013)  It is really sad to have him on this list, but it's basically either him or Chris Carter or Jon Singleton, so really there's no choice.
2B:  Jose Altuve (2011-2015)  I highly recommend watching Big Dreams: The Jose Altuve Story to learn more about one of the best second basemen in the game today.
3B:  Chris Johnson (2010-2012)  He had a pretty decent 2010 season, but never really built upon it.
SS:  Marwin Gonzalez (2012-2015)  More of a good utility stopgap (Jose Vizcaino-like) than an everyday player.  Carlos Correa will take this spot by the end of this season.
LF:  Carlos Lee (2010-2012)  El Caballo was a favorite of the Hispanic fans, but by this time he was clearly not worth his salary ($19 mil), or even half it, but no one else has taken over in the last few years.
CF:  Michael Bourn (2010-2011)  It's really only one and a half years, but again, no consistent starters here.  It's kind of sad how quickly his career has derailed after one good season in Atlanta.
RF:  George Springer (2014-2015)  A true gamer, and a great clubhouse guy, he instantly became my favorite post-Berkman Astro once he came up.  If he can stay healthy, and stop swinging for the fences, he will be a powerhouse.
SP:  Dallas Keuchel (2012-2015)  It took a few years, but by 2014 he looked like a solid starter and of course dominated in 2015, going 15-0 at home.  Still only 27, he should be an ace for years to come.
SP:  Wandy Rodriguez (2010-2012)  A couple of 11 win seasons, which would have been better with a decent offense behind him, and seven more in 2012 before being traded away.  He was always that guy who wasn't flashy but before you knew it you looked up and he had put together another quality start (263 in 275 starts for his career, that's impressive).
SP:  Collin McHugh (2014-2015)  Never really did much toiling in the Minors and a few games in the Majors for the Mets and Rockies, the Astros got him and out of nowhere he became a great second to Keuchel.
SP:  Brett Myers (2010-2011)  Had a couple of good years, was turned into a closer in 2012, then traded away.
SP:  Bud Norris (2010-2013)  Seemed to be that prospect who had plenty of potential, was better than his won-loss record, but never really put it all together.
CL:  Luke Gregerson (2015)  Closer, and the bullpen in general, has not exactly been a strength of the team.  That is until it became a focus prior to 2015.  Ken Giles will hopefully be the next Billy Wagner.

Notable Performances:
Jose Altuve 2014: .341/.377/.453, 225 H, 7 HR,  59 RBI, 47 2B, 3 3B, 56 SB, 135 OPS+
Hunter Pence 2010: .282/.325/.461, 25 HR, 91 RBI, 29 2B, 18 SB, 41 BB, 112 OPS+
Carlos Correa 2015: .279/.345/.512, 22 HR, 68 RBI, 22 2B, 14 SB, 40 BB, 132 OPS+
George Springer 2015: .276/.367/.459, 16 HR, 41 RBI, 19 2B, 50 BB, 126 OPS+
Dallas Keuchel 2015:  20-8, 2.48 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 3 CG, 232 IP, 216 K, 162 ERA+
Collin McHugh 2014: 11-9, 2.73 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 155 IP, 157 K, 141 ERA+
Will Harris 2015: 5-5-2, 1.90 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 71 IP, 68 K, 212 ERA+
Tony Sipp 2014: 3-4-0, 1.99 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 54 IP, 62 K, 203 ERA+

Best Trade:
Rio Ruiz, Andrew Thruman, and Mike Foltynewicz to the Braves for James Hoyt and Evan Gattis

Like much of this discussion it's too early to tell, but at least Gattis has contributed to a successful 2015.  It's very likely the trade for Carlos Gomez and Mike Fiers, or the trade for Kevin Giles, will end up being better.

Worst Trade:
Hunter Pence to the Phillies for Jarred Cosart, Jon Singelton, Josh Zeid, and Domingo Santana (July 29, 2011)

At the time this looked like a great trade, getting a bunch of highly tauted prospects.  Now it looks like a complete bust as Pence has gone on to win a World Series (albeit in San Francisco) and generally is still good, while Singleton seems to be a bust and Santana was just traded to Milwaukee, though Cosart was featured in the trade with the Marlins that brought Jake Marisnick. 

Best Draft:
Too early to tell, probably 2012 with Carlos Correa taken 1st overall, Lance McCullers later in the first round, and Preston Tucker in the 7th round.

Worst Draft:

Too early to tell, probably 2013 with Mark Appel taken 1st overall, and nobody to reach the Majors yet.  While the 2014 draft had the Brady Aiken debacle, they did get A.J. Reed in the second round.

No comments:

Post a Comment