Focus on the Good: a 2015 Astros review and look towards the future

Coming directly after a series loss, it is sometimes difficult to look at things objectively.  Here is my attempt.

All things considered, this was a wildly positive season for the Astros.  Coming into the season, I predicted about 85 wins.  I liked some of the young talent and figured they had covered their most glaring problem from the previous season: the bullpen.  I was nearly right.  They finished the season at 86-76 and a Wild Card spot, significantly better than most people expected though somewhat disappointing given their early season success.  It was also 7 games below their Pythagorean record of 93-69 given their +111 run differential (second only to the Blue Jays in the American League).  They were in first place for 139 days, which makes losing the division by one game that much more painful.

The Astros came out with a bang, going 15-7 in April for their best month in over a decade.  They were 3 games over .500 in May and one over in June before splitting July.  Going into July they were 4 games up in the West, but after a 6 games losing streak they would actually be 2 games back by the 22nd.  By the end of the month they would be back to 2 games up.  August was another good month (15-13), but there were signs of regress.  September was a month to forget, since they went 11-16 and were as far back as 4.5 games on September 25.  Somehow they went 6-2 over the last week plus to win that Wild Card spot.

To the surprise of some, the Wild Card game ended up being a fairly easy match, despite playing on the road (where they were 33-48 on the season) and Dallas Keuchel going on short rest.  A second inning home run by Colby Rasmus gave them the early lead, and Carlos Gomez added to it with his own solo home run in the 4th.  A final insurance run driven in by Jose Altuve in the 7th provided more than enough with Keuchel giving up only 3 hits in 6 innings and Tony Sipp, Will Harris, and Luke Gregerson completing the shutout.  On to Kansas City.

The division series told us a lot about the Astros strengths...and weaknesses.  They should have won game two, and thus swept the series.  They should have won game four and avoided going back to Kansas City.  Both of those losses came down to the bullpen not being able to close out games.  Unfortunately by the end of the season this was not a surprise.  Game 5 was simply a blow out.  On the plus side: plenty of power, solid starting pitching, and contributions from nearly everyone.  Even Jason Castro got the go-ahead hit in Game 3.  Alas, the Royals got the breaks, or perhaps they were just the better team.  The biggest differences between the two teams were rather apparent: confidence in the bullpen and discipline at the plate.  The Royals were just better, and now we can root them on again as last year.  I said at the beginning, there's no team I would rather lose to in the playoffs.

Let's now turn our eyes to a larger picture of the season.  Here are some of the good, some of the bad, and some key areas of focus this off season.

The Good:

Young Players Making Their Mark

            There can be no question the young Astros were immensely important for the team.  Carlos Correa is the most obvious.

  When Jed Lowrie got hurt, the best hitter on the team at that time, it ended up being the best worst thing for the franchise.  Correa was called up shortly thereafter, and promptly proved to be the Rookie of the Year and, with Altuve, part of the best middle infield in the game.  Over 99 games he hit 22 doubles, 22 home runs, drove in 68, stole 14 out of 18 bases, had a nice slash line of .279/.345/.512, and he led the team in OPS (.857) and OPS+ (132).  From the start, people compared him to a young Alex Rodriguez, and all I can say is, stay away from PEDs.  There were other rookies who contributed.  Preston Tucker played solidly in left field for a good chunk of the season, though he has proven to be platoon only at this time of his career (.255/.314/.494 and all 13 home runs against righties, .200/.235/.231 against lefties).  Lance McCullers was called up in May and held down a rotation spot for much of the season. 

His record (6-7) does not show the true effectiveness of his stuff (3.22 ERA, 1.186 WHIP, 9.2 Ks per 9 innings, 3 Ks/BB).  Vincent Velasquez showed some electric stuff as well in limited action (55.2 innings, 4.37 ERA, 1.275 WHIP, 9.4 Ks/9, 2.76 K/BB).  Other young arms like Dan Straily, Asher Wojciechowski, Jake Buchanan, and Michael Feliz will be interesting to watch in the future.  And of course, young players beyond rookie include key players like Dallas Keuchel (27), Collin McHugh (28), Jose Altuve (25), Jake Marisnick (24), and George Springer (28).  In fact, only one position player (Lowrie) was over the age of 30.  This should be the start of many good years.

Power/Speed Combination

            One of the biggest news items for the Astros all year was their power and speed.  They finished second in home runs (230, only two behind the Blue Jays) and finished first in stolen bases (121, 17 more than the second place Royals).  And again it wasn't just a couple of guys.  The Astros tied a Major League record with 11 guys with double digit home runs, not including two more with 9 each.  They were also second in the league in slugging and OPS.  Altuve lead the team with steals (38), followed by Marisnick (24) and three others with at least 10.

Starting Rotation

            I knew coming into this season the starting rotation would be one of the best aspects of the team.  They were even better than I expected.  Keuchel, of course, should win the Cy Young going 20-8 (including a record 15-0 at home) with a 2.48 ERA, 1.017 WHIP, and 216 strikeouts in 232 innings (4.24 K/BB).  McHugh was not too far behind him, going 19-7 with a 3.89 ERA, 1.277 WHIP, and 171 strikeouts in 203.2 innings.  I've already mentioned the contribution of McCullers.  Beyond those four there were serviceable years by Scott Feldman and Brett Oberholtzer as well as late season acquisitions Mike Fiers and Scott Kazmir (admittedly a big disappointment after a couple of good early starts).  I feel very good about a future rotation of Keuchel, McHugh, McCullers, and some combination of Velasquez, Straily, Brad Peacock, and eventually Mark Appeal.

Salaries

            Since this is a young team, the total team salary is still quite small.  In fact, the Astros had the best ratio of price per win of all the playoff teams.  Before the season, they were sitting at around $70 million, second lowest.  By the end of the season, due to trades, they were still only at $81 million, sixth lowest.  The other playoff teams: Dodgers ($314), Yankees ($219), Rangers ($153), Blue Jays ($138), Cubs ($133), Cardinals ($132), Royals ($125), Mets ($120), and Pirates ($99).  Next year's base salary will go up, thanks to Carlos Gomez and arbitration guys, but overall the Astros have room to spend.

Depth

            I've already talked about pitching depth.  Here, I'm talking about position players.  Virtually everyone came in and contributed at some point.  The best of the bench guys was Marwin Gonzalez, who played so well that he forced his way into an everyday role until he was injured at the end of the year.

  Jed Lowrie, post-injury, was not as good as the first month of the season but still valuable playing around the infield.  The outfield had plenty of options besides regular starters including Tucker, Marisnick, and Rasmus.  Even Hank Conger hit at one point.

Minors

            Here's where it gets really interesting.  The minor league system for the Astros was so good last year that Sports Illustrated predicted they would win the 2017 World Series.

  It was even better this year.  Seven of the nine teams made the playoffs, a franchise record.  And look at some of the talent coming through the system.  A.J. Reed, a 22-year old first baseman, hit 34 home runs with a 1.044 OPS between High A and Double A.  Jon Kemmer, OF, 24, hit 18 home runs with a .988 OPS in AA.  Chase McDonald, 1B, 23, 30 HRs, .950 OPS in High A.  Tyler White, 3B, 24, 14 HRs, .939 OPS between AA and AAA.  Matt Duffy, 3B, 26, 20 HRs, .850 OPS in AAA.  Those are just some of the top prospects.  With pitchers there's Joseph Musgrave, Michael Feliz, Chris Devenski, and of course Mark Appeal among others who look promising.

The Bad:

Bullpen

            During the first half of the season, the bullpen looked to be one of the strongest parts of the team.  Then they fell apart in the second half, particularly during September.  Will Harris: 4-1, 0.87 ERA, 0.726 WHIP, 42 Ks in 41 innings first half; 1-4, 3.34 ERA, 1.146 WHIP, 26 Ks in 29.2 innings in second half.  Josh Fields: 2-1, 2.48 ERA, 1.034 WHIP, 39 Ks in 29 innings first half; 2-0, 4.98 ERA, 1.292 WHIP, 28 Ks in 21.2 innings second half.  Pat Neshek: 3-1, 2.70 ERA, 0.780 WHIP, 29 Ks in 33 innings first half; 0-5, 5.06 ERA, 1.651 WHIP, 22 Ks in 21 innings second half.  Worse of all, looking at WHIPs in September alone: Chad Qualls (1.636), Fields (1.966), and Neshek (2.591 - that's right, almost 3 base runners per inning).  Qualls and Neshek were so bad towards the end that the former was left off the playoff roster and the latter was barely used.  This will have to be fixed.

Free Swinging

            With great power comes great strikeouts, at least today.  The Astros struck out 1392 times to lead the league.  That's not as bad as the Major League record they set two years ago with 1535.  It's still very bad.  It's also clearly not new.  The worst offenders were Rasmus (154), Carter (151), and five others with over 100 (Castro, Valbuena, Marisnick, Springer, Gattis).  I'm a little more forgiving if the team at least walks a lot.  The Astros were fifth in the league, which is good but it should be better.  You could see this as strongly contrasting with the Royals, especially in the last game of the series.  The Royals worked counts and tried to put the ball in play.  The Astros swung for the fences.  It's great when it works, incredibly frustrating when it does not.

First Base

            Outside of the last couple of weeks of Carter and some time with Marwin, first base was atrocious this season.  A cumulative stat line of 24 doubles, 28 home runs, 76 RBIs, 72 walks, 176 strikeouts, .221/.319/.420, .739 OPS.  Only catcher and third base were marginally worse on the team.  That cannot happen with a winning team.  You have to get production from that position.  I begged for a replacement at the trade deadline.  Go all out for Joey Votto.

  At least get Adam Lind.  Instead they got his (injured) teammate at a position that was fairly solid.  Inexcusable.  Is Singleton the answer?  Right now, I doubt it, and I don't know if they can risk giving him another chance next year.

Road Record

            The Astros were 33-48 on the road.  Worst in the American League.  Why?  It's actually truly hard to tell.  Were they easily influenced by the road crowd?  Did they just not feel comfortable away from home?  Are they so well suited to play in Minute Maid that it does not translate elsewhere?  Are the road grey's cursed (check the tape: they basically stopped wearing the road grey and only wore the alternate orange over the last week and during the playoffs)?  Whatever it may be, that cannot happen again if they want to improve.

Close Game Record

            The Astros were 21-12 in games with 5+ run differential.  That means they were 65-64 in "close" games, including 21-29 in one-run games.  This accounts for the difference in real versus Pythagorean records.  My guess is the biggest culprit would be looking back at the bullpen.  To be successful, you have to win the close games.

To Be Addressed:

Bullpen

            Last offseason's major concern is the same for this year.  They reportedly went after Aroldis Chapman and Craig Kimbrel at the trade deadline but could not pull of either deal.  Boy we could have used one of them in the playoffs.  Looking at free agents, my pick would be Tyler Clippard, or Darren O'Day.

First Base

            Cris Carter is not the answer.  Jon Singleton probably is not either.  Marwin Gonzales is not a long term answer.  They need someone badly.  Who is available?  If they go the free agent route, It's native Texan Chris Davis and not much else.  I would love to see his 47 home runs in Minute Maid.  Maybe Adam Lind if the Brewers don't pick up his option.  They can always try for a trade and get Votto or someone else like that.  It might cost a lot, but it might be worth it.

Free Agents

            The Astros have a couple of somewhat important guys up for free agency.  Colby Rasmus will probably command around $10 million.  I know after the playoffs many will say "resign!" but I would not.  The outfield is fairly strong with options in the minors.  I'd rather see Marisnick and Tucker get a platoon chance in left.  Scott Kazmir is next.  The Astros might get a hometown discount with him, but I would avoid with his performance down the stretch.  Instead, go big for David Price (yeah right) or Johnny Cueto, or even an upgrade like Jordan Zimmerman, Doug Fister, Marco Estrada, or Yovani Gallardo.  Chad Qualls has a team option for $3.25 million.  For the love of God, make the right decision and let him go.  My guess is the playoff roster move shows they will not pick up that option.  Use that money to go after the previously mentioned relievers.  Oliver Perez should be gone.  Finally, Tony Sipp, whom the Astros have to resign.  He's the most important one in my book.  Lock him up.

Trades?

            Ok, so here's where I make a wild trade offer that will never happen.  Send Jon Singleton, Mark Appeal (yes him) and maybe another prospect to the Reds for Joey Votto and Aroldis Chapman.

  How huge would that be?  Most people will say that will not happen.  I counter: the Reds are not winning next year, they may want to get their salaries off the books.  Joey Votto is 31 and signed through 2023 with a club option for his age 40 season in 2024.  He's owed nearly $25 million per year.  The Astros can take that contract.  The Reds don't want it.  Chapman will be arbitration eligible and probably will cost at least $10 million, and potentially a free agent in 2017.  The Reds don't want to pay him that.  Again, the Astros can take on that contract.  The Reds get younger and a bunch of money off the books.  The Astros instantly fix their two glaring holes.  Win, win.  It will never happen, but a guy can dream.

Finally, my early prediction for next year.  The Astros go with a rotation of Keuchel, McHugh, (insert free agent starter), McCullers, Fiers/Feldman/Velasquez.  The bullpen loses Qualls and adds someone like Clippard or perhaps Chapman.  The lineup adds a first baseman in the middle of the order but is otherwise the same.  The Astros improve to 90 wins and just clear the West.  Check back with me once spring training starts so I can bump that up even more after we get Votto and Chapman.  For once, I'm going to be an optimist.

In the meantime, Go Royals!