Coming directly after a series loss, it
is sometimes difficult to look at things objectively. Here is my attempt.
All things considered, this was a wildly
positive season for the Astros. Coming
into the season, I predicted about 85 wins.
I liked some of the young talent and figured they had covered their most
glaring problem from the previous season: the bullpen. I was nearly right. They finished the season at 86-76 and a Wild
Card spot, significantly better than most people expected though somewhat
disappointing given their early season success.
It was also 7 games below their Pythagorean record of 93-69 given their
+111 run differential (second only to the Blue Jays in the American League). They were in first place for 139 days, which
makes losing the division by one game that much more painful.
The Astros came out with a bang, going
15-7 in April for their best month in over a decade. They were 3 games over .500 in May and one
over in June before splitting July.
Going into July they were 4 games up in the West, but after a 6 games
losing streak they would actually be 2 games back by the 22nd. By the end of the month they would be back to
2 games up. August was another good
month (15-13), but there were signs of regress.
September was a month to forget, since they went 11-16 and were as far
back as 4.5 games on September 25.
Somehow they went 6-2 over the last week plus to win that Wild Card
spot.
To the surprise of some, the Wild Card
game ended up being a fairly easy match, despite playing on the road (where
they were 33-48 on the season) and Dallas Keuchel going on short rest. A second inning home run by Colby Rasmus gave
them the early lead, and Carlos Gomez added to it with his own solo home run in
the 4th. A final insurance run driven in
by Jose Altuve in the 7th provided more than enough with Keuchel giving up only
3 hits in 6 innings and Tony Sipp, Will Harris, and Luke Gregerson completing
the shutout. On to Kansas City.
The division series told us a lot about
the Astros strengths...and weaknesses.
They should have won game two, and thus swept the series. They should have won game four and avoided
going back to Kansas City. Both of those
losses came down to the bullpen not being able to close out games. Unfortunately by the end of the season this
was not a surprise. Game 5 was simply a
blow out. On the plus side: plenty of
power, solid starting pitching, and contributions from nearly everyone. Even Jason Castro got the go-ahead hit in
Game 3. Alas, the Royals got the breaks,
or perhaps they were just the better team.
The biggest differences between the two teams were rather apparent:
confidence in the bullpen and discipline at the plate. The Royals were just better, and now we can
root them on again as last year. I said
at the beginning, there's no team I would rather lose to in the playoffs.
Let's now turn our eyes to a larger
picture of the season. Here are some of
the good, some of the bad, and some key areas of focus this off season.
The Good:
Young Players Making Their Mark
There
can be no question the young Astros were immensely important for the team. Carlos Correa is the most obvious.
When Jed Lowrie got hurt, the best hitter on
the team at that time, it ended up being the best worst thing for the franchise. Correa was called up shortly thereafter, and
promptly proved to be the Rookie of the Year and, with Altuve, part of the best
middle infield in the game. Over 99
games he hit 22 doubles, 22 home runs, drove in 68, stole 14 out of 18 bases,
had a nice slash line of .279/.345/.512, and he led the team in OPS (.857) and
OPS+ (132). From the start, people
compared him to a young Alex Rodriguez, and all I can say is, stay away from
PEDs. There were other rookies who
contributed. Preston Tucker played
solidly in left field for a good chunk of the season, though he has proven to
be platoon only at this time of his career (.255/.314/.494 and all 13 home runs
against righties, .200/.235/.231 against lefties). Lance McCullers was called up in May and held
down a rotation spot for much of the season.
His record (6-7) does not show the true effectiveness of his stuff (3.22
ERA, 1.186 WHIP, 9.2 Ks per 9 innings, 3 Ks/BB). Vincent Velasquez showed some electric stuff
as well in limited action (55.2 innings, 4.37 ERA, 1.275 WHIP, 9.4 Ks/9, 2.76
K/BB). Other young arms like Dan
Straily, Asher Wojciechowski, Jake Buchanan, and Michael Feliz will be
interesting to watch in the future. And
of course, young players beyond rookie include key players like Dallas Keuchel
(27), Collin McHugh (28), Jose Altuve (25), Jake Marisnick (24), and George
Springer (28). In fact, only one
position player (Lowrie) was over the age of 30. This should be the start of many good years.
Power/Speed Combination
One
of the biggest news items for the Astros all year was their power and
speed. They finished second in home runs
(230, only two behind the Blue Jays) and finished first in stolen bases (121,
17 more than the second place Royals).
And again it wasn't just a couple of guys. The Astros tied a Major League record with 11
guys with double digit home runs, not including two more with 9 each. They were also second in the league in
slugging and OPS. Altuve lead the team
with steals (38), followed by Marisnick (24) and three others with at least 10.
Starting Rotation
I
knew coming into this season the starting rotation would be one of the best
aspects of the team. They were even
better than I expected. Keuchel, of
course, should win the Cy Young going 20-8 (including a record 15-0 at home)
with a 2.48 ERA, 1.017 WHIP, and 216 strikeouts in 232 innings (4.24
K/BB). McHugh was not too far behind
him, going 19-7 with a 3.89 ERA, 1.277 WHIP, and 171 strikeouts in 203.2
innings. I've already mentioned the contribution
of McCullers. Beyond those four there
were serviceable years by Scott Feldman and Brett Oberholtzer as well as late
season acquisitions Mike Fiers and Scott Kazmir (admittedly a big
disappointment after a couple of good early starts). I feel very good about a future rotation of
Keuchel, McHugh, McCullers, and some combination of Velasquez, Straily, Brad
Peacock, and eventually Mark Appeal.
Salaries
Since
this is a young team, the total team salary is still quite small. In fact, the Astros had the best ratio of
price per win of all the playoff teams.
Before the season, they were sitting at around $70 million, second
lowest. By the end of the season, due to
trades, they were still only at $81 million, sixth lowest. The other playoff teams: Dodgers ($314),
Yankees ($219), Rangers ($153), Blue Jays ($138), Cubs ($133), Cardinals
($132), Royals ($125), Mets ($120), and Pirates ($99). Next year's base salary will go up, thanks to
Carlos Gomez and arbitration guys, but overall the Astros have room to spend.
Depth
I've
already talked about pitching depth.
Here, I'm talking about position players. Virtually everyone came in and contributed at
some point. The best of the bench guys
was Marwin Gonzalez, who played so well that he forced his way into an everyday
role until he was injured at the end of the year.
Jed Lowrie, post-injury, was not as good as
the first month of the season but still valuable playing around the
infield. The outfield had plenty of
options besides regular starters including Tucker, Marisnick, and Rasmus. Even Hank Conger hit at one point.
Minors
Here's
where it gets really interesting. The
minor league system for the Astros was so good last year that Sports
Illustrated predicted they would win the 2017 World Series.
It was even better this year. Seven of the nine teams made the playoffs, a
franchise record. And look at some of
the talent coming through the system.
A.J. Reed, a 22-year old first baseman, hit 34 home runs with a 1.044
OPS between High A and Double A. Jon
Kemmer, OF, 24, hit 18 home runs with a .988 OPS in AA. Chase McDonald, 1B, 23, 30 HRs, .950 OPS in
High A. Tyler White, 3B, 24, 14 HRs,
.939 OPS between AA and AAA. Matt Duffy,
3B, 26, 20 HRs, .850 OPS in AAA. Those
are just some of the top prospects. With
pitchers there's Joseph Musgrave, Michael Feliz, Chris Devenski, and of course
Mark Appeal among others who look promising.
The Bad:
Bullpen
During
the first half of the season, the bullpen looked to be one of the strongest
parts of the team. Then they fell apart
in the second half, particularly during September. Will Harris: 4-1, 0.87 ERA, 0.726 WHIP, 42 Ks
in 41 innings first half; 1-4, 3.34 ERA, 1.146 WHIP, 26 Ks in 29.2 innings in
second half. Josh Fields: 2-1, 2.48 ERA,
1.034 WHIP, 39 Ks in 29 innings first half; 2-0, 4.98 ERA, 1.292 WHIP, 28 Ks in
21.2 innings second half. Pat Neshek:
3-1, 2.70 ERA, 0.780 WHIP, 29 Ks in 33 innings first half; 0-5, 5.06 ERA, 1.651
WHIP, 22 Ks in 21 innings second half.
Worse of all, looking at WHIPs in September alone: Chad Qualls (1.636),
Fields (1.966), and Neshek (2.591 - that's right, almost 3 base runners per
inning). Qualls and Neshek were so bad
towards the end that the former was left off the playoff roster and the latter
was barely used. This will have to be
fixed.
Free Swinging
With
great power comes great strikeouts, at least today. The Astros struck out 1392 times to lead the
league. That's not as bad as the Major
League record they set two years ago with 1535.
It's still very bad. It's also
clearly not new. The worst offenders
were Rasmus (154), Carter (151), and five others with over 100 (Castro, Valbuena,
Marisnick, Springer, Gattis). I'm a
little more forgiving if the team at least walks a lot. The Astros were fifth in the league, which is
good but it should be better. You could
see this as strongly contrasting with the Royals, especially in the last game
of the series. The Royals worked counts
and tried to put the ball in play. The
Astros swung for the fences. It's great
when it works, incredibly frustrating when it does not.
First Base
Outside
of the last couple of weeks of Carter and some time with Marwin, first base was
atrocious this season. A cumulative stat
line of 24 doubles, 28 home runs, 76 RBIs, 72 walks, 176 strikeouts,
.221/.319/.420, .739 OPS. Only catcher
and third base were marginally worse on the team. That cannot happen with a winning team. You have to get production from that
position. I begged for a replacement at
the trade deadline. Go all out for Joey
Votto.
At least get Adam Lind. Instead they got his (injured) teammate at a
position that was fairly solid.
Inexcusable. Is Singleton the
answer? Right now, I doubt it, and I
don't know if they can risk giving him another chance next year.
Road Record
The
Astros were 33-48 on the road. Worst in
the American League. Why? It's actually truly hard to tell. Were they easily influenced by the road
crowd? Did they just not feel
comfortable away from home? Are they so
well suited to play in Minute Maid that it does not translate elsewhere? Are the road grey's cursed (check the tape:
they basically stopped wearing the road grey and only wore the alternate orange
over the last week and during the playoffs)? Whatever it may be, that cannot happen again
if they want to improve.
Close Game Record
The
Astros were 21-12 in games with 5+ run differential. That means they were 65-64 in
"close" games, including 21-29 in one-run games. This accounts for the difference in real
versus Pythagorean records. My guess is
the biggest culprit would be looking back at the bullpen. To be successful, you have to win the close
games.
To Be Addressed:
Bullpen
Last
offseason's major concern is the same for this year. They reportedly went after Aroldis Chapman
and Craig Kimbrel at the trade deadline but could not pull of either deal. Boy we could have used one of them in the
playoffs. Looking at free agents, my
pick would be Tyler Clippard, or Darren O'Day.
First Base
Cris
Carter is not the answer. Jon Singleton
probably is not either. Marwin Gonzales
is not a long term answer. They need
someone badly. Who is available? If they go the free agent route, It's native Texan Chris
Davis and not much else. I would love to see his 47 home runs in Minute Maid. Maybe Adam Lind if the Brewers don't pick up his option. They can always try for a trade and get Votto
or someone else like that. It might cost
a lot, but it might be worth it.
Free Agents
The
Astros have a couple of somewhat important guys up for free agency. Colby Rasmus will probably command around $10
million. I know after the playoffs many
will say "resign!" but I would not.
The outfield is fairly strong with options in the minors. I'd rather see Marisnick and Tucker get a
platoon chance in left. Scott Kazmir is
next. The Astros might get a hometown
discount with him, but I would avoid with his performance down the
stretch. Instead, go big for David Price
(yeah right) or Johnny Cueto, or even an upgrade like Jordan Zimmerman, Doug
Fister, Marco Estrada, or Yovani Gallardo.
Chad Qualls has a team option for $3.25 million. For the love of God, make the right decision
and let him go. My guess is the playoff
roster move shows they will not pick up that option. Use that money to go after the previously
mentioned relievers. Oliver Perez should
be gone. Finally, Tony Sipp, whom the
Astros have to resign. He's the most
important one in my book. Lock him up.
Trades?
Ok,
so here's where I make a wild trade offer that will never happen. Send Jon Singleton, Mark Appeal (yes him) and
maybe another prospect to the Reds for Joey Votto and Aroldis Chapman.
How huge would that be? Most people will say that will not
happen. I counter: the Reds are not
winning next year, they may want to get their salaries off the books. Joey Votto is 31 and signed through 2023 with
a club option for his age 40 season in 2024.
He's owed nearly $25 million per year.
The Astros can take that contract.
The Reds don't want it. Chapman
will be arbitration eligible and probably will cost at least $10 million, and
potentially a free agent in 2017. The
Reds don't want to pay him that. Again,
the Astros can take on that contract.
The Reds get younger and a bunch of money off the books. The Astros instantly fix their two glaring
holes. Win, win. It will never happen, but a guy can dream.
Finally, my early prediction for next
year. The Astros go with a rotation of
Keuchel, McHugh, (insert free agent starter), McCullers, Fiers/Feldman/Velasquez. The bullpen loses Qualls and adds someone
like Clippard or perhaps Chapman. The
lineup adds a first baseman in the middle of the order but is otherwise the same. The Astros improve to 90 wins and just clear
the West. Check back with me once spring
training starts so I can bump that up even more after we get Votto and
Chapman. For once, I'm going to be an
optimist.
In the meantime, Go Royals!
