Thursday, March 29, 2018

2018 MLB Season Predictions


Today the best secular holiday coincides with the start of the three most important days of the year.  Yes, Opening Day is Holy Thursday.  This has me torn, especially since I will be busy and will miss the Astros first game.  At least there’s 161 others.  So without further ado, here are my predictions for the 2018 season:

American League
East

New York Yankees (though Stanton misses time and Judge has a slump)

Boston Red Sox (Wild Card; not enough pitching to match the strong offense)

Toronto Blue Jays (no Bautista, injuries hurt)
Baltimore Orioles (I’m not sure they know what they’re doing)
Tampa Bay Rays (rebuilding…again)

Central

Cleveland Indians (could break their own record for pitchers’ strikeouts)

Minnesota Twins (Wild Card; young team on the rise)

Kansas City Royals (losing Perez rough for the start)
Chicago White Sox (good young talent but not complete)
Detroit Tigers (a swift fall and rebuilding in the works)

West

Houston Astros (on paper even better than last year)

Los Angeles Angels (will challenge for a bit)
Seattle Mariners (King Felix continues to disintegrate before our eyes)
Texas Rangers (most have them last, but I never underestimate these losers)
Oakland Athletics (stuck in a rut)

National League
East

Washington Nationals (possibly the easiest division to pick)

Philadelphia Phillies (maturing quickly but still pretty far back)
New York Mets (all that money and nothing to show for it)
Atlanta Braves (still rebuilding)
Miami Marlins (are they trying to copy the early 2010s Astros?)

Central

Milwaukee Brewers (upset alert!  Upset alert!)

Chicago Cubs (Wild Card; sure very talented but for some reason not the same after 2016)

St. Louis Cardinals (still missing some parts)
Cincinnati Reds (Votto needs a chance on a real team)
Pittsburgh Pirates (clearly not trying)

West

Los Angeles Dodgers (not quite as good as last year)

Arizona Diamondbacks (Wild Card; a solid team in a challenging division)

Colorado Rockies (do they have the pitching?)
San Francisco Giants (rebuilding with veterans?  Astros will tell you that doesn’t work)
San Diego Padres (better than expected)

Playoffs:

AL Wild Card: Twins over Red Sox
NL Wild Card: Diamondback over Cubs

ALDS:  Astros over Twins
              Indians over Yankees
NLDS:  Nationals over Diamondbacks (I’ve been bitten too many times, but still a little hope)
              Dodgers over Brewers

ALCS:  Astros over Indians
NLCS:  Dodgers over Nationals (like I said, I can’t put too much faith in the Nationals)

World Series:  Astros over Dodgers (repeat!  Let the jinx begin)

AL MVP:  Carlos Correa

AL Cy Young:  Carlos Carrasco

AL ROY:  Willie Calhoun


NL MVP:  Paul Goldschmidt

NL Cy Young:  Noah Syndergaard

NL ROY:  Ronald Acuna


Tuesday, March 13, 2018

Mount Rushmore: AL WEST


American League West

Los Angeles/California/Anaheim Angels of Anaheim

Mike Trout

            Six and a half seasons in and he's already leading many franchise categories.  I will also put him in the slightly overrated category.  He's obviously very good, but the fact that he's been top two in the MVP race every year but last year, when some people still said he should win despite missing a big chunk of time and but objectively not as valuable as Altuve, is a bit much.

Gene Autry

            He was the owner of the franchise from its inception until 1997.  In a sense, he made this franchise happen.  He's also certainly one of the most famous owners of all time.

Tim Salmon

            He's about as close to a "Mr. Angel" as there's been (before maybe Trout).  He's the franchise leader in Home Runs and near the top of most everything else.  He was also pretty big in their 2002 World Series win.

Nolan Ryan

            He might be on a couple more lists in this division.  Chuck Finley actually holds many of the pitching records, but Ryan was the first huge name in franchise history.  Between 1972 and 1974 he averaged almost 21 wins and over 350 strikeouts, and the team averaged about 71 wins.

Other notables:
            Mike Scioscia has a strong case, but I didn't really want two non-players on the list.  Garret Anderson actually leads most of the counting categories, but his WAR is pretty low (7th).  There's also the aforementioned Chuck Finley, and the longtime closer Troy Percival.

Houston Astros

Craig Biggio


            He leads the franchise in most categories, and was the ultimate team player moving from catcher to outfield to second base to outfield to second base as they needed.  It was weird to see his uniform not dirty.  He's one of the best second baseman of all time.  This one is easy.

Jeff Bagwell

            Another easy choice, he's the franchise leader in Home Runs, RBIs, WAR, and second in just about everything else.  He was the unanimous MVP in 1994 (one of the few players helped by the strike since he broke his wrist a couple days before).  You can't think Astros and not think Biggio and Bagwell.

Jose Altuve

            Is it too early for him?  I say no, because he's already made a huge impact on the team, he's already had some of the best seasons in franchise history, and he was the MVP for the first World Series winning team.  He ascent up the franchise leaderboards will only continue.

Nolan Ryan

            He's on here for one simple reason: it was nearly impossible to grow up a baseball fan in Texas in the 80s and he not be your favorite player.  His stats should have been much better, but they stupidly had him on a strict pitch count.  He's a legend, and Houston is his home.

Other notables:
            Larry Dierker deserves special mention as the team's first ace, a decent announcer, and a pretty good manager.  Other pitchers of note are Roy Oswalt, Billy Wagner, Mike Scott, and J.R. Richard.  Unfortunately there's not enough room for Lance Berkman, Jose Cruz, or Cesar Cedeno.  I love this team.

Philadelphia/Kansas City/Oakland Athletics

Connie Mack

            He was only the manager, general manager and either owner or part owner for the first 50 years of the franchise.  He only has almost 1000 more wins than any other manager in history.  He only won five World Series with two major dynasties (1910-1913 and 1929-1930).

Lefty Grove

            Some experts have (successfully) argued that he was the left-handed equivalent of Walter Johnson, meaning the best of all time.  He won 195 games in 9 seasons with the A's, you do the math.  He also lead the league in ERA in all but three seasons.  His 1931 season is one of the best of all time (31-4, 2.06 ERA - yes in one of the biggest offensive eras in history, 1.077 WHIP, oh and 5 saves).

Jimmie Foxx

            One of my favorite quotes: "Foxx wasn't scouted, he was trapped."  If it weren't for Gehrig, he would be the best first baseman of all time.  The Beast was just that, an amazing player with unbelievable numbers.  He won back-to-back MVPs in 1932 and 1933, including 58 home runs in '32 and the Triple Crown in '33.

Rickey Henderson

            Oh yeah, this franchise played in Oakland, too.  I was actually surprised to find out he's the franchise leader in WAR, only because he moved around so much.  He's unquestionably the best leadoff hitter of all time, and most of his best seasons were in Oakland.  It's still amazing to see 130 stolen bases in 1982.

Other notables:
            If this was Oakland only, there would definitely be a spot for Tony LaRussa and Dennis Eckersley, who together (for better or worse) revolutionized the bullpen/closer usage.  The fourth Oaklander might be either Charlie Finley or Billy Beane, which is way too many non-players.  On-the-field A's of note include Eddie Collins, Al Simmons, Mark McGwire, Reggie Jackson (I suppose), Eddie Plank (franchise leader in Wins and pitching WAR), Rube Waddell, and Chief Bender among others.  This actually might be the deepest franchise of any, even over the Yankees.

Seattle Mariners

Ken Griffey Jr.

            What can be said about Junior?  He was instantly one biggest name in baseball and didn't disappoint (until he went to Cincinnati).  He instantly gave credibility to a franchise with none.  He had one of the sweetest swings in history.  He glided in the field.  He was amazing to watch.

Randy Johnson

            The Big Unit was the pitching equivalent to Griffey in Seattle.  Still one of my favorite moments was in the All Star Game when Larry Walker batted right handed against him.  Then there was the time when John Kruk wanted to have nothing to do with him so he threw it way over his head.  Oh yeah, then there was the bird he demolished in mid-flight (yes that was when he was in Arizona, but I had to mention it).  He also netted them Freddy Garcia and Carlos Guillen in the rental trade by the Astros in 1998.

Ichiro Suzuki

            Another instant sensation when he arrived in Seattle, though of course he was already an established star in Japan.  I'm going to say it: his numbers are kind of hollow (his OBP was only .381 when he hit .350 in his "rookie" season in 2001), but he was (is?) great and fun to watch.  And there's no denying his huge impact in Seattle.

Edgar Martinez

            He probably should be a Hall of Famer, even if he was primarily a designated hitter for the majority of his career.  Unlike Ichiro, his numbers were not hollow (.479 OBP when he hit .356 in 1995, plus a .628 slugging thanks to 52 doubles).  I'm not mad he's not in, I just think he should be.

Other notables:
            This was probably the easiest list I came up with (yes, if I didn't mention before, my initial lists were written down in class, gotta do something to stay awake), even after checking the numbers I didn't waver.  Sure, some people would put Felix Hernandez in there, but Martinez had a bigger playoff impact.  Alex Rodriguez didn't play long enough in Seattle.  The only other person I might consider is fiery manager Lou Piniella, still easily the franchise leader in wins.

Washington Senators (2)/Texas Rangers

Ivan Rodriguez

            Well, he is arguably the best all-around catcher of all time, and the only true Ranger Hall of Famer (zing Cody), so this was a pretty easy pick.  He was so good at stopping the running game that for six of his twelve season in Texas he had a better than 50% caught stealing percentage, and 48-49% in three others!  Smart teams simply didn't bother trying.

Nolan Ryan

            The "other" Ranger Hall of Famer (we all know he should have been an Astro), his five partial seasons at the end of his career were not great (at least wins-wise, his other numbers were still great the first three years) but they were impactful.  Of course after retiring he continued to serve the franchise off the field until he came home to Houston.

Adrian Beltre

            I underestimated how good he has been in Arlington before I checked the numbers.  He's had some really great season, even coming in his mid- to late-30s.  He's also been a mentor to the younger guys coming up over the last few years.  Even though, as a Ranger, I can't like him, his whole thing with his head is kind of funny.

Michael Young

            Here's something that I can't quite figure out: he leads most of the individual stat categories for the franchise, yet he's not in the top 10 in WAR (he's third in offensive WAR, he's defensive WAR is atrocious).  In a way he's a Biggio-lite, in that he did whatever the team needed, moving from second base to shortstop to third base.  For me, he was the face of the 2000s Rangers.

Other notables:
            Juan Gonzalez (yes he won two MVPs but he didn't really deserve them).  Rafael Palmeiro ('roids).  Buddy Bell.  Ian Kinsler.  Rusty Greer.  Charlie Hough.  Kenny Rogers.  Fergie Jenkins.  All guys who could be considered.  I actually initially had Johnny Oates on my list, but that was before I realized he's only third in franchise wins.  No Ron Washington would not sniff my list, since he essentially lost those two World Series since he didn't know how to use a bullpen.